Economy
Investors Advised to Hold PZ Cussons Shares
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
Recently, one of the companies trading its securities on the floor of the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE), PZ Cussons Nigeria Plc, released its financial statements for first quarter of 2019 and the firm posted a loss of N204.6 million versus the N123.1 million loss recorded in Q1-18.
Not too many investors were happy with their performance, which was sadly disappointing.
But analysts at Cordros Research have said investors having shares of the company in their portfolio can still keep them because PZ Cussons’ “revenue performance will be better over the remaining quarters.”
However, in a report released last week, Cordros Research said compared with 2018, it expects the group’s earnings in Q2, and indeed the rest of 2019E, to be weaker, with the trading update also released last week by the parent company guiding to still challenged conditions in Nigeria ahead of the general elections.
“We recently spoke to some PZ’s distributors in Lagos and they confirmed to us that the ‘market has been subdued since June across all segments,’ with new HPC launches gaining only little traction,” the report said.
At -14% y/y and -8% q/q in Q1-19, PZ Cussons’ revenue has declined y/y and q/q for the third quarter in a row. June-August is off-peak period for the group, and management had in June, guided to continued difficult trading conditions in the local market.
“We had expected revenue will decline by low single-digit over the low base of Q4-18, and given new products had just been introduced to the market.
“While revenue performance will be better over the remaining quarters, in the historical pattern, following the last result, we believe upside is limited compared with 2018FY, against a backdrop of still subdued consumer spending (reinforced by the September trading update),” the report stated.
Higher like-for-like (LFL) gross margin in Q1-19 driven by lower FX loss:
At 24.3%, reported LFL gross margin was higher by 167bps vs. Q1-18. The gross margin is consistent with our expectation, and also an improvement over the last two quarters of 2018FY. We believe the lower FX loss of N670 million (-63% vs. Q1-18 and -68% vs. Q4-18) was supportive of the improved gross margin, but while FX – and broadly, gross margin – outlook is positive, risk is that PZ’s FX loss is somewhat unstable and pricing pressure persists (we learnt from distributors that the prices of Joy and Imperial Leather bar soaps were recently returned to their pre-hike levels).
Sticky opex and lower revenue squeeze EBIT:
Despite lower revenue, opex grew by 0.2% y/y and 11% q/q, with the corresponding ratio to revenue at a record-high of 26%. On LFL basis, we estimate that PZ recorded operating loss of N250 million (Q1-2018: N90 million) in the review period. While the focus for PZ must be on maintaining cost control, we are afraid that increasing competition will force the group to retain opex around current level (N4 billion average quarterly spend since Q1-18) to maintain market share across product segments. On our forecast 2% decline in revenue, we reduce our 2019E EBIT margin estimate to 3.5% (previously 4.1%).
Changes to earnings estimates and TP:
Our adjusted PBT estimate is N2.4 billion in 2019E, (previously N3.2 billion), equating to 4% growth vs. 2018FY. Save for materially lower opex and finance costs compared to our estimates, we see no catalysts for PZ’s earnings in the near term.
On our revised TP of N12.18/s (previously N14.60/s), the stock trades at 3% downside, and expected total return of -1% after incorporating 2019E dividend yield of c.2%. HOLD.
Economy
Customs Street Rallies 1.06% on Improved Market Activity, Investor Sentiment
By Dipo Olowookere
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited rallied by 1.06 per cent on renewed investor confidence after surviving a run of losing streaks.
Yesterday, some performance indicators were better compared with the previous session, with the All-Share Index (ASI) chalking up 2,540.08 points to settle at 240,743.19 points versus Monday’s 238,203.11 points, and the market capitalisation gained N1.649 trillion to close at N154.484 trillion, in contrast to the preceding day’s N152.835 trillion.
As for the sectoral performance, the energy sector was down by 0.09 per cent, but the loss was offset by the gains recorded by the others.
The insurance counter grew by 2.84 per cent, the banking and the consumer goods indices rose by 0.18 per cent each, and the industrial goods segment expanded by 0.07 per cent.
Unlike on Monday, the market breadth index was positive on Tuesday, with Customs Street closing with 33 price gainers and 23 price losers, indicating bullish investor sentiment.
Guinea Insurance improved by 10.00 per cent to N1.10, International Energy Insurance advanced by 9.89 per cent to N6.11, Tripple Gee soared by 9.82 per cent to N3.69, Cornerstone Insurance climbed 9.76 per cent to N6.75, and Sovereign Trust Insurance surged by 8.63 per cent to N2.14.
On the flip side, Red Star Express dropped 9.96 per cent to trade at N24.85, Premier Paints depreciated by 9.93 per cent to N6.43, Trans-Nationwide Express declined by 9.82 per cent to N4.04, Royal Exchange shrank by 9.38 per cent to N1.45, and Abbey Mortgage Bank crashed by 9.29 per cent to N28.12.
Market activity improved during the trading day, with market participants transacting 564.9 million shares valued at N39.4 billion in 49,230 deals compared with the 475.8 million shares worth N36.5 billion traded in 63,567 deals a day earlier, implying a shortfall in the number of deals by 22.55 per cent, and a rise in the trading volume and value by 18.73 per cent and 7.95 per cent, respectively.
Fidelity Bank led the activity chart after a turnover of 59.4 million units worth N1.1 billion, Zenith Bank traded 49.5 million units valued at N5.9 billion, Dangote Sugar exchanged 43.1 million units for N3.1 billion, Chams sold 39.5 million units worth N156.5 million, and Access Holdings transacted 30.7 million units valued at N703.6 million.
Economy
Brent, WTI Further Loses as Middle East Tensions Ease
By Adedapo Adesanya
The prices of the two major crude oil grades further declined on Tuesday as investors kept a close watch on crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz following signs of progress in US-Iran peace talks.
Brent futures lost 82 cents or 1.1 per cent to trade at $77.08 per barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures gave up 65 cents or 0.9 per cent to sell for $73.21 a barrel.
The market continued to edge lower after the US granted Iran a 60-day sanctions waiver following initial peace talks, while hostilities in Lebanon eased under a broader agreement.
Investors are cautiously watching how quickly Middle Eastern producers can resume oil production and exports following damage from the war, and whether more ships will enter the region.
After US Vice President JD Vance left Switzerland on June 22 after a round of talks over the weekend, President Donald Trump issued a warning to Iran that “I will do what I have to do” if it does not stick to its agreement with the US.
Mr Vance had noted movement on a framework toward reaching a final peace deal within 60 days, including the guarantee of safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, an end to fighting in Lebanon, and Iran’s acceptance of visits by international nuclear inspectors.
On Tuesday, Oman and Iran agreed to press on with discussions about the future administration of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 per cent of crude and liquified natural gas (LNG) passes.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Tuesday that Iran would not be able to charge tolls in the key waterway as part of any final agreement with the United States, saying such an arrangement would violate international law.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the world has lost millions of barrels of oil and gas supply since the Iran war closed the strait, putting the shut-in data at more than 14 million barrels per day of oil output or about 14 per cent of world demand.
Meanwhile, President Trump claimed that 19 million barrels of oil flowed out of the strait on Monday, and pointed to falling oil prices in a social media post on Tuesday.
The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the US fell by 765,000 barrels in the week ending June 19. Official data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be released later on Wednesday.
Economy
SEC Bans Marketing, Promotion of Dangote Refinery’s IPO by Stockbrokers
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The marketing and promotion of the planned initial public offering (IPO) by Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals FZE has been banned by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
A statement from the apex capital market regulator on Tuesday emphasised that it had yet to receive any application for such an offer or approve the purported IPO.
SEC noted that it had become aware of advertisements, flyers, digital banners and targeted electronic mails circulating on social media platforms and investment channels concerning a supposed securities offering by the refinery.
It expressed concern over the involvement of some Registered Capital Market Operators (CMOs) in what it described as an “unwholesome and manipulative exercise” of actively soliciting advance subscriptions for an offering that has not been presented to the commission.
“No application for the registration of an IPO or public offer of shares of the Refinery has been filed with or approved by the commission,” the agency noted, adding that the ongoing pre-marketing activities were “capable of misleading investors, distorting market expectations, creating information asymmetry and generally undermining the integrity of the capital market.”
It further stated that the marketing campaign and invitations to “create accounts”, “pre-fund,” or “secure guaranteed allocations” amounted to market manipulation and constituted “serious violation of the Investments and Securities Act.”
Consequently, the SEC directed all Registered Capital Market Operators, particularly stockbrokers and digital platform promoters, to immediately stop all promotional activities.
It also directed them to “cease with immediate effect from publishing, reposting, or distributing any promotional material, flyer, or commentary relating to the acquisition or allocation of shares in the Refinery.”
The commission further ordered operators to “remove or take down all such unauthorised marketing materials from websites, social media handles (including X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Facebook etc.), and messaging groups within twenty-four (24) hours of this notice.”
The regulator further instructed operators to desist from accepting deposits, commitments, account openings or expressions of interest from investors for the purported public offering and to “reverse and refund all funds already collected in connection with this purported offering to clients within twenty-four (24) hours of this notice.”
The organisation warned that defaulters would face sanctions as non-compliance would attract penalties under the Investments and Securities Act, 2025 and the SEC Rules and Regulations.
Advising investors to exercise caution, the SEC said members of the public should “rely only on formal, official pronouncements issued directly by the commission through its official channels.”
It warned that “all such high-pressure marketing tactics, or transfer of funds to any operator for ‘pre-IPO’ placement should be ignored as they did not receive the commission’s approval.”
SEC assured that if it eventually receives and clears an application for a public offering by the refinery, an approved prospectus would be made available to investors in line with the provisions of the Investments and Securities Act, 2025.
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