Connect with us

Economy

Investors Advised to Hold PZ Cussons Shares

Published

on

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

Recently, one of the companies trading its securities on the floor of the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE), PZ Cussons Nigeria Plc, released its financial statements for first quarter of 2019 and the firm posted a loss of N204.6 million versus the N123.1 million loss recorded in Q1-18.

Not too many investors were happy with their performance, which was sadly disappointing.

But analysts at Cordros Research have said investors having shares of the company in their portfolio can still keep them because PZ Cussons’ “revenue performance will be better over the remaining quarters.”

However, in a report released last week, Cordros Research said compared with 2018, it expects the group’s earnings in Q2, and indeed the rest of 2019E, to be weaker, with the trading update also released last week by the parent company guiding to still challenged conditions in Nigeria ahead of the general elections.

“We recently spoke to some PZ’s distributors in Lagos and they confirmed to us that the ‘market has been subdued since June across all segments,’ with new HPC launches gaining only little traction,” the report said.

At -14% y/y and -8% q/q in Q1-19, PZ Cussons’ revenue has declined y/y and q/q for the third quarter in a row. June-August is off-peak period for the group, and management had in June, guided to continued difficult trading conditions in the local market.

“We had expected revenue will decline by low single-digit over the low base of Q4-18, and given new products had just been introduced to the market.

“While revenue performance will be better over the remaining quarters, in the historical pattern, following the last result, we believe upside is limited compared with 2018FY, against a backdrop of still subdued consumer spending (reinforced by the September trading update),” the report stated.

Higher like-for-like (LFL) gross margin in Q1-19 driven by lower FX loss:

At 24.3%, reported LFL gross margin was higher by 167bps vs. Q1-18. The gross margin is consistent with our expectation, and also an improvement over the last two quarters of 2018FY. We believe the lower FX loss of N670 million (-63% vs. Q1-18 and -68% vs. Q4-18) was supportive of the improved gross margin, but while FX – and broadly, gross margin – outlook is positive, risk is that PZ’s FX loss is somewhat unstable and pricing pressure persists (we learnt from distributors that the prices of Joy and Imperial Leather bar soaps were recently returned to their pre-hike levels).

Sticky opex and lower revenue squeeze EBIT:

Despite lower revenue, opex grew by 0.2% y/y and 11% q/q, with the corresponding ratio to revenue at a record-high of 26%. On LFL basis, we estimate that PZ recorded operating loss of N250 million (Q1-2018: N90 million) in the review period. While the focus for PZ must be on maintaining cost control, we are afraid that increasing competition will force the group to retain opex around current level (N4 billion average quarterly spend since Q1-18) to maintain market share across product segments. On our forecast 2% decline in revenue, we reduce our 2019E EBIT margin estimate to 3.5% (previously 4.1%).

Changes to earnings estimates and TP:

Our adjusted PBT estimate is N2.4 billion in 2019E, (previously N3.2 billion), equating to 4% growth vs. 2018FY. Save for materially lower opex and finance costs compared to our estimates, we see no catalysts for PZ’s earnings in the near term.

On our revised TP of N12.18/s (previously N14.60/s), the stock trades at 3% downside, and expected total return of -1% after incorporating 2019E dividend yield of c.2%. HOLD.

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

Economy

Tinubu Presents N58.47trn Budget for 2026 to National Assembly

Published

on

2026 budget tinubu

By Adedapo Adesanya

President Bola Tinubu on Friday presented a budget proposal of N58.47 trillion for the 2026 fiscal year titled Budget of Consolidation, Renewed Resilience and Shared Prosperity to a joint session of the National Assembly, with capital recurrent (non‑debt) expenditure standing at 15.25 trillion, and the capital expenditure at N26.08 trillion, while the crude oil benchmark was pegged at $64.85 per barrel.

Business Post reports that the Brent crude grade currently trades around $60 per barrel. It is also expected to trade at that level or lower next year over worries about oil glut.

At the budget presentation today, Mr Tinubu said the expected total revenue for the year is N34.33 trillion, and the proposal is anchored on a crude oil production of 1.84 million barrels per day, and an exchange rate of N1,400 to the US Dollar.

In terms of sectoral allocation, defence and security took the lion’s share with N5.41 trillion, followed by infrastructure at N3.56 trillion, education received N3.52 trillion, while health received N2.48 trillion.

Addressing the lawmakers, the President described the budget proposal as not “just accounting lines”.

“They are a statement of national priorities,” the president told the gathering. “We remain firmly committed to fiscal sustainability, debt transparency, and value‑for‑money spending.”

The presentation came at a time of heightened insecurity in parts of the country, with mass abductions and other crimes making headlines.

Outlining his government’s plan to address the challenge, President Tinubu reminded the gathering that security “remains the foundation of development”.

He said some of the measures in place to tame insecurity include the modernisation of the Armed Forces, intelligence‑driven policing and joint operations, border security, and technology‑enabled surveillance and community‑based peacebuilding and conflict prevention.

“We will invest in security with clear accountability for outcomes—because security spending must deliver security results,” the president said.

“To secure our country, our priority will remain on increasing the fighting capability of our armed forces and other security agencies by boosting personnel and procuring cutting-edge platforms and other hardware,” he added.

Continue Reading

Economy

PenCom Extends Deadline for Pension Recapitalisation to June 2027

Published

on

Pension Recapitalisation

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The deadline for the recapitalisation of the Nigerian pension industry has been extended by six months to June 2027 from December 2026.

This extension was approved by the National Pension Commission (PenCom), the agency, which regulates the sector in the country.

Addressing newsmen on Thursday in Lagos, the Director-General of PenCom, Ms Omolola Oloworaran, explained that the shift in deadline was to give operators more time to boost the capital base, dismissing speculations that the exercise had been suspended.

“The recapitalisation has not been suspended. We have communicated the requirements to the Pension Fund Administrators (PFAs), and we expect every operator to be compliant by June 2027. Anyone who is not compliant by then will lose their licence,” Ms Oloworaran told journalists.

She added that, “From a regulatory standpoint, our major challenge is ensuring compliance. We are working with ICPC, labour and the TUC to ensure employers remit pension contributions for their employees.”

The DG noted that engagements with industry operators indicated broad acceptance of the policy, with many PFAs already taking steps to raise additional capital or explore mergers and acquisitions.

“You may see some mergers and acquisitions in the industry, but what is clear is that the recapitalisation exercise is on track and the industry agrees with us,” she stated.

PenCom wants the PFAs to increase their capital base and has created three categories, with the first consists operators with Assets Under Management of N500 billion and above. They are expected to have a minimum capital of N20 billion and one per cent of AUM above N500 billion.

The second category has PFAs with AUM below N500 billion, which must have at least N20 billion as capital base.

The last segment comprises special-purpose PFAs such as NPF Pensions Limited, whose minimum capital was pegged at N30 billion, and the Nigerian University Pension Management Company Limited, whose minimum capital was fixed at N20 billion.

Continue Reading

Economy

Three Securities Sink NASD Exchange by 0.68%

Published

on

NASD securities exchange

By Adedapo Adesanya

Three securities weakened the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 0.68 per cent on Thursday, December 18.

According to data, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc led the losers’ group after it slipped by N2.87 to N36.78 per share from N39.65 per share, Golden Capital Plc depreciated by 77 Kobo to end at N6.98 per unit versus the previous day’s N7.77 per unit, and FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc dropped 19 Kobo to sell at N60.00 per share versus Wednesday’s closing price of N60.19 per share.

At the close of business, the market capitalisation lost N16.81 billion to finish at N2.147 billion compared with the preceding session’s N2.164 trillion, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) declined by 24.76 points to 3,589.88 points from 3,614.64 points.

Yesterday, the volume of securities bought and sold increased by 49.3 per cent to 30.5 million units from 20.4 million units, the value of securities surged by 211.8 per cent to N225.1 million from N72.2 million, and the number of deals jumped by 33.3 per cent to 28 deals from 21 deals.

Infrastructure Credit Guarantee Company (InfraCredit) Plc remained the most traded stock by value with a year-to-date sale of 5.8 billion units valued at N16.4 billion, followed by Okitipupa Plc with 178.9 million units transacted for N9.5 billion, and MRS Oil Plc with 36.1 million units worth N4.9 billion.

Similarly, InfraCredit Plc ended as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 5.8 billion units traded for N16.4 billion, trailed by Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc with 1.2 billion units sold for N420.7 million, and Impresit Bakolori Plc with 536.9 million units exchanged for N524.9 million.

Continue Reading

Trending