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Cordros Research Maintains ‘Sell’ Rating on Cadbury Nigeria

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By Dipo Olowookere

One of the leading research investment firms in Nigeria, Cordros Research, has retained its ‘sell’ rating on Cadbury Nigeria Plc.

In its latest report, the company said it was not surprised by the lower PBT posted by Cadbury in its Q1 earnings, which was expected to be impacted by higher finance charges (+233% y/y), given the sizeable balance of borrowings at the beginning of this year, compared to 2017.

Last week, the FMCG company published its Q1-18 result, showing EBIT was higher by 76.2% while PBT was lower by 67.2%, both compared to Q1-17.

The reported PBT missed Cordros’ estimate by 49%, owing specifically to the deviation on finance income line (46% below our estimate), but it expects this to normalize in subsequent quarters.

“We retain our 8% revenue growth for 2018E: Q1-18 revenue grew 2% y/y, consistent with our 1.8% growth estimate. Given base selling price is lower by marginal single-digit, we estimate flat to modest volume contraction must have been recorded during the just concluded quarter, compared to last year.

“Retaining our 8% revenue growth estimate for 2018E suggests we look for a faster growth in subsequent quarters, and will be largely volume-driven, on continued promotional activities, including price discounting.

“We are aware of an ongoing buy-1-get-1 free promo for the 450g Bournvita Hot Chocolate Drink. Our gross margin estimate is also unchanged: At 21.8%, CADBURY’s gross margin in Q1-18 is in line with our 21.9% estimate for the quarter, and 3 bps higher vs. Q1-17.

“We had stated in our last note on the company that we do not expect gross margin will be above the 22.5% rate achieved in 2017FY, and this view is unchanged. Margin headwinds are selling price competition (on stronger imports) and rising cocoa prices, while the tailwinds are stable FX and soft sugar (-28% YtD) and dairy prices (-6% YtD).

“Also, at 2.6%, EBIT margin is in line in Q1-18. Our estimate for 2018E is unchanged at 3.4%, equating to +120 bps vs. 2017FY. Keeping opex under control is an aspect that CADBURY’s management has performed better in recent years of strong pressure on market share and revenue. Opex declined by 2% y/y in Q1-18 while the ratio to revenue was lower by 78 bps. From 20.6% in 2017FY, we estimate opex margin will drop to 19.5% in 2018E, on slower opex growth of 2%, over revenue growth of 8%.

“Balance sheet: The balance of short term borrowings was NGN4.3 billion, from the NGN3.6 billion at the beginning of the year. CADBURY’s loans are expensive (we estimated 22% at the end of 2017FY), and we are not aware that they are being refinanced through commercial papers in this period of generally declining interest rates.

“Finance cost in Q1-18 is in line with our estimate. Finance income was lower, but we expect this would increase and converge with our estimate for the year, as cash grows following the payment of 2017FY dividend,” the report said.

Continuing, Cordros said, “We maintain SELL at NGN10.96 TP. Our estimates are unchanged. On our estimates, CADBURY is trading at 2018F P/E multiple of 61.5x, a significant premium to the 5-year historical average of 31.1x. The stock price is down 6% since our March 20 update.

Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via [email protected]

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Economy

McNichols, Eterna, Aradel Crash Stock Market by 0.37%

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McNichols

By Dipo Olowookere

The domestic stock market crashed by 0.37 per cent on Thursday as a result of the decline in the price of shares of McNichols, Eterna, Aradel Holdings, and others.

Business Post reports that investor sentiment remained weak after the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited ended the session with 25 price gainers and 31 price losers, indicating a negative market breadth index.

McNichols lost 10.00 per cent to trade at N7.74, ABC Transport slipped by 9.88 per cent to N6.20, Eterna shrank by 9.85 per cent to N29.75, Aradel Holdings depreciated by 9.51 per cent to N1,749.90, and NPF Microfinance Bank contracted by 8.45 per cent to N5.20.

On the flip side, International Energy Insurance gained 10.00 per cent to close at N6.60, Omatek improved by 9.73 per cent to N2.03, Abbey Mortgage Bank surged by 9.68 per cent to N8.50, Cutix expanded by 9.66 per cent to N3.18, and John Holt grew by 7.79 per cent to N14.90.

As for the sectorial performance, the industrial goods and banking indices chalked up 0.54 per cent and 0.31 per cent, respectively. But the energy sector depleted by 4.90 per cent, the insurance counter tumbled by 0.58 per cent, and the consumer goods index slumped by 0.03 per cent.

As a result, the All-Share Index (ASI) dipped by 905.30 points to 242,227.31 points from 243,132.61 points, and the market capitalisation stumbled by N581 billion to N155.359 trillion from N155.940 trillion.

During the session, investors traded 588.5 million equities valued at N27.9 billion in 57,352 deals compared with the 923.0 million equities worth N42.3 billion transacted in 69,332 deals on Wednesday, showing a drop in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 36.24 per cent, 34.04 per cent, and 17.28 per cent, respectively.

The most active equity yesterday was Access Holdings with 109.7 million units sold for N2.6 billion, FCMB traded 35.6 million units valued at N384.2 million, NGX Group transacted 28.1 million units worth N3.9 billion, Zenith Bank exchanged 26.9 million units for N3.3 billion, and Sterling Holdings recorded a turnover of 22.5 million units worth N176.1 million.

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Economy

Naira Slips 0.1% to N1,358/$1 at Official FX Market

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Naira-Yuan Currency Swap Deal

By Adedapo Adesanya

A 0.1 per cent or N1,49 loss was recorded by the Nigerian Naira against the United States Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Thursday, June 4, closing at N1,358.75/$1 compared with the previous day’s N1,347.26/$1.

In the same vein, the Naira depreciated against the Pound Sterling in the official FX market during the session by N5.39 to trade at N1,828.06/£1 versus Wednesday’s closing rate of N1,822.67/£1, but gained N6.75 against the Euro to sell at N1,574.83/€1 versus the preceding session’s N1,584.39/€1.

At the black market and GTBank FX desk, the local currency traded flat against the Dollar during the session at N1,375/$1 and N1,372/$1, respectively.

Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) showed that NFEM interbank FX turnover contracted to $128.117 million in 121 deals on Thursday from $133.731 million the previous day.

On the positive side, Nigeria’s external reserves moved closer to a 2009 high of $50 billion, enhancing analysts’ confidence about the local currency outlook in the second half of 2026.

This improvement has been helped by heightened global uncertainty, which has reduced the incentive for importers and corporates to demand FX, as cautious trade weighs on import needs. Analysts estimate a $40 billion net FX position for the year, a projection anchored in oil windfall gains.

As for the cryptocurrency market, prices extended steep weekly losses as the broader artificial-intelligence trade that has driven global risk assets since 2026 faltered.

The sell-off was led by equity and currency markets, with semiconductor stocks, Asian indexes and several regional currencies sliding in a broad risk-off shift.

Persistent outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs and a rare BTC sale by Strategy have removed a key source of support, leaving markets focused on Friday’s US jobs report for clues on Federal Reserve policy and the fate of the AI trade. The most valued coin slipped 3.6 per cent to $61,914.58.

Cardano (ADA) plunged by 17.6 per cent to $0.1630, Solana (SOL) declined by 7.0 per cent to $65.69, Ethereum (ETH) slipped by 6.9 per cent to $1,666.13, Dogecoin (DOGE) went down by 6.5 per cent to $0.8445, and Ripple (XRP) crashed by 6.5 per cent to $1.11.

Further, Binance Coin (BNB) slumped by 4.3 per cent to $581.45, and TRON (TRX) dropped 1.9 per cent to sell at $0.3261, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) gained 0.01 per cent each to sell at $0.9990 and $0.9998, respectively.

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Economy

Brent Settles at $95, WTI at $93 as Middle East Tensions Ease

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brent crude oil

By Adedapo Adesanya

The price of the crude oil benchmarks moderated by about 3 per cent on Thursday on investor hopes for an end to the ​United States-Israeli war with Iran that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, following a ceasefire deal between Israel ‌and Lebanon.

Brent futures lost $2.78 ​or 2.84 per cent to trade at $95.03 per barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined by $2.98 or 3.1 per cent to close at $93.04 per barrel.

Israel and Lebanon said they have agreed to implement a ceasefire on Wednesday, raising hopes for a deal between the US and Iran. Iran has made any agreement conditional in part on an end to fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, an Iran-aligned group in Lebanon. However, Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon continued on Thursday.

Iran signalled that there has been “no tangible progress” in the talks with the Americans on a potential deal, while the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire announced by the United States overnight appears shaky.

“No tangible progress has been achieved in the negotiation process,” Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was quoted as saying by the semi-official Iranian news agency Tasnim.

The US and Iran have been exchanging messages on a framework proposal for a potential agreement for weeks. The oil market has reacted to each signal or hint of a breakthrough with sell-offs that sent Brent Crude prices to below $100 per barrel last week.

Despite the market hopes, the positions of the two sides appear to remain very distant, and a re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz is not imminent.

Earlier this week, Iran targeted civilian infrastructure in Kuwait and Bahrain, and alarms were raised at US military bases in Saudi Arabia, as Iran responded to the Israeli offensive in Lebanon.

The Republican-led US ‌House of ⁠Representatives approved a resolution to block President Donald Trump from continuing the war against Iran. To take effect, the resolution would need Senate approval and a two-thirds majority in both chambers to override an almost certain Trump veto.

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) expects ⁠robust oil ​demand growth and is not changing its estimate, according to its Secretary General, Haitham Al Ghais, ​on Thursday.

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