Economy
Consider These Critical Risks Before Investing in Stocks This Year
By Dipo Olowookere
Investing in stocks is a profitable business if you understand the market very well, but when you fail to know trends, you might bite your fingers very hard like some did in 2008 during the market crash.
Next year, Nigerians head to the polls to elect new leaders and representatives and the polity is already building up.
Already, happenings in the political scene have been hitting the stock market and as the year runs out, more effect would be felt by the market.
However, analysts at Zedcrest Research have highlighted some political risks that may have huge negative effect on the Nigerian stock market and they are presented below.
The Fixed Income market has been on a rally of late, hinged on renewed interests from both local and offshore clients, due to investors’ expectation of further moderation in inflation rates and a tilt to a more accommodative monetary stance by the CBN, with the recent reduction in its spate of OMO issuances.
Foreign investors have also been attracted by the broader stability in the country’s macro-economic environment, largely hinged on positive developments in oil prices and relative stability in its FX Market.
We however note that there exists some downside risk factors in the broader political and economic space which could spook the wheels of the recent momentum in the markets. The key risk being a possibility of capital reversals by FPI’s in reaction to political risk factors ahead of the 2019 General elections.
Major Risk Factors
1.) Delay in Budget Passage
The delay in the passage of the 2018 budget is being felt negatively as the budget is required by public and private sector stakeholders to plan and manage their economic activities. The 2018 budget which was put at N8.612 trillion and presented to the National Assembly by President Muhammadu Buhari on Nov. 7, 2017, was tagged “Budget of Consolidation’’, but the absence of a budget calendar and lack of coordination amongst the executive and legislature have been the major causes of the delay. While we expect the issues around the budget delay to be resolved soon, a continued delay would however send signals of instability and uncertainty to prospective local and offshore investors.
2.) Regional Conflicts
The Nigerian socio-political climate has been beset by several conflicts in recent times. Notable amongst these include the recent Shiite protests in which large number of supporters of the Shite Leader El-Zakzaky stormed the state capital to protest the continued detention of their Leader. We have also witnessed recent attacks by the Boko-haram sect in the north eastern region which has caused some angst amongst members of the International community.
Most Notable amongst these conflicts however remains the continued killings by rampaging herdsmen across most of the North central and some southern states of the country. We fear that if these conflicts are not properly handled by the Government, they may result in heightened levels of insecurity and an escalation of tensions ahead of the upcoming General elections.
a.) Shiite Protests
There has been escalating tensions in recent times from Members of the Islamic Movement of Nigeria (IMN) in protest of the continued detention of their leader, Ibrahim El-Zakzaky, whom the Nigerian government has kept in custody for over two years, without trial and despite court orders for his release. The protests, which started peacefully on Monday and Tuesday last week turned violent after police forcefully dispersed the protesters. We fear that if this situation is not carefully handled, it might degenerate into a more serious security concern.
b.) Boko-haram Insurgency
Despite claims by the Federal Government of a complete subjugation of the Boko-haram Militant Sect, we have witnessed recent spate of attacks from the terrorist group, which has once again renewed fears of a debilitating security situation in the North-eastern part of the country.
c.) Herdsmen Killings
The Seemingly intractable killings by Fulani herdsmen across most of the Middle belt and southern states, has been one of the most controversial issues facing the current administration, which has drawn a lot of criticisms from both local and foreign governments, politicians and human rights activists. Of utmost concern however is the Federal Government’s seeming inability to find a lasting solution to the menace. We fear that a lack of decisive action by the FGN may result in increased tensions as members of the affected communities may be forced to defend themselves from any future attacks.
3.) Inflationary Threats
Most experts have said that the inflation target of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) would not be feasible, due to the downside risks occasioned by electioneering spending and implementation of minimum wage. Inflationary pressures are likely to resume in the third quarter of the year on the back of waning base effect, increased electioneering spending and the implementation of minimum wage by government.
RECOMMENDATION:
We believe the aforementioned risk factors should be critically monitored by investors, as they may portend for significant reversals in offshore capital flows and an uptrend in fixed income yields if they worsen or do crystallize. We consequently advise investors to exercise caution in their investments ahead of the 2019 General elections, whilst advising a tilt to the shorter end of the Naira yield curve for risk averse investors.
Economy
BudgIT Urges Transparency as FG Defers 70% of 2025 Capital Projects to 2026
By Adedapo Adesanya
BudgIT, a leading civic-tech organisation promoting transparency and accountability in Nigeria’s public finance, has called on the federal government to be transparent after it deferred the implementation of 70 per cent of capital projects initially appropriated in the 2025 fiscal year to 2026.
“From our analysis, while this development is not entirely surprising, we hold cautious reservations about the implications of this decision,” it said in a statement.
The group said the deferment suggests the federal government intends to limit the number of capital projects under implementation, to use available funds more efficiently, prioritise critical projects, and reduce the long-standing problem of abandoned projects.
“In this sense, the move appears to be an attempt to retain the 2025 capital projects—many of which are based on existing economic plans and strategies—rather than introduce an entirely new set of projects in the next fiscal year.
“We view this as an effort by the federal government to restructure the sequencing of capital project implementation. Rather than rolling out a fresh budget filled with new capital projects, the government appears to be attempting a reset by carrying forward existing projects and improving implementation discipline,” it said.
BudgIT said this approach, if properly managed, could help salvage a challenging fiscal situation and strengthen budget credibility.
Recall that BudgIT has consistently raised concerns about Nigeria’s budgeting process, particularly the government’s failure to adhere to the approved budget calendar and its practice of running multiple fiscal programmes concurrently.
“We have maintained that budget timelines must be treated as sacrosanct and that unfinished but still relevant projects should be consolidated through a supplementary budget passed within the same fiscal year, rather than endlessly rolled over,” it said.
“Consequently, the continued inclusion of numerous uncoordinated and low-priority projects has bloated federal capital expenditure and increased public debt, often without clear developmental value.
“This pattern weakens the impact of capital investment, as spending decisions increasingly appear driven by project insertions rather than sound planning, prioritisation, and fiscal discipline. This is compounded by the fact that the federal government does not publish disaggregated reports on capital expenditure implementation. So, citizens are at a loss in knowing precisely what has or has not been implemented,” the statement added.
This challenge, it said, is further illustrated by developments during the 2024 fiscal year, in which the federal government extended the implementation of capital expenditure components of both the 2024 Appropriation Act and the 2024 supplementary Appropriation Act into mid-2025, and subsequently to December 2025.
“As a result, although the 2025 Appropriation Act was duly passed and assented to, it appears that only its recurrent components—such as personnel and overhead costs—were implemented in 2025. This is further evidenced by the absence of federal budget implementation reports for the 2025 period and official statements indicating that revenues from the 2025 fiscal year were used to fund the implementation of the 2024 budget.”
It revealed that it remains unclear whether the 2024 fiscal year has been formally closed.
“The recently published Q4 2024 federal budget implementation report is explicitly described as “provisional,” raising concerns about proper fiscal closure. Formal closure of fiscal accounts is essential, as failure to do so undermines financial reporting, fiscal transparency, and consolidation standards.”
In light of these, BudgIT stressed that this decision to defer capital project implementation must be robustly defended during the upcoming budget defence sessions at the National Assembly.
“The Executive arm of government must clearly demonstrate to the Legislature that this action is necessary to restore order to Nigeria’s fiscal framework and to end the damaging practice of implementing multiple budgets concurrently. By the time the annual Appropriation Act is passed by the National Assembly and transmitted for presidential assent, it is often heavily bloated with additional projects. While the National Assembly’s power to increase or decrease the budget is constitutionally recognised, BudgIT has long argued that this power has been widely abused, often disregarding fiscal planning and national development priorities.”
Commenting, BudgIT’s Deputy Country Director, Mr Vahyala Kwaga, underscored the need for discipline and clarity in implementing the deferment.
“Deferring 70 per cent of capital projects is neither a solution nor a setback on its own. What matters is whether this decision marks a clear break from the cycle of bloated budgets, overlapping fiscal years, and weak project implementation. Without strict adherence to budget timelines, proper fiscal closure, and transparent payment processes, the risk is that we simply postpone inefficiencies rather than resolve them,” Mr Kwaga said.
In addition, BudgIT urged the federal government to fully adhere to its “Bottom-Up Cash Plan” as outlined by the Federal Ministry of Finance.
“This approach—where payments are made directly to verified contractors rather than routed through MDAs—has the potential to improve efficiency and accountability in capital project implementation. The government must ensure strict compliance with payment protocols, contractor verification processes, and timely disbursement of funds.
“To this end, we call on the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Budget and Economic Planning, the Budget Office of the Federation, the Bureau of Public Procurement, relevant MDAs, and the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, to uphold the principles of transparency, legal compliance, and accountability in the management of public funds and public projects.
“We also encourage citizens, civil society, the private sector, and the media to actively support and scrutinise capital expenditure implementation, as the benefits of effective public spending ultimately accrue to all Nigerians.”
Economy
SEC Authorises Extension of The Initiates N1.3bn Rights Issue
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The N1.3 billion rights issue of The Initiates, which commenced on Wednesday, November 5, 2025, has been extended.
The exercise, which is on the basis of one new ordinary share for every existing five ordinary shares held as of the close of business on Friday, August 1, 2025, was scheduled to close on Friday, December 12, 2025.
However, the period of the rights issue has been stretched by an addition month, leaving the new closing date at Monday, January 12, 2026.
This extension was approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the highest regulatory agency for the Nigerian capital market.
The Initiates, which operates as an environmental and waste management organisation, is offering in the rights issue a total of 177,996,310 units of its stocks to existing shareholders at a unit price of N7.00.
Economy
Nigeria’s Inflation Eases for Eighth Straight Month to 14.45% in November
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased for the eighth consecutive month in November as it printed 14.45 per cent relative to the October 2025 headline inflation rate of 16.05 per cent.
According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday, on a month-on-month basis, the headline inflation rate in November 2025 was 1.22 per cent, which was 0.29 per cent higher than the 0.93 per cent recorded in October 2025.
Consumer inflation peaked at 34 per cent last December before dropping after the stats office revised its base year from 2009 to 2024 and adjusted the weight of items in its price basket.
On a month-on-month basis, the food inflation rate in November 2025 was 1.13 per cent, up by 1.5 per cent from the -0.37 per cent achieved in the preceding month. The increase can be attributed to the rate of increase in the average prices of tomatoes (dried), cassava tuber, periwinkle (shelled), grounded pepper, eggs, crayfish, melon (egusi) unshelled, oxtail, and onions (fresh), among others.
The average annual rate of food inflation for the 12 months ending November 2025 over the previous 12 months’ average was 19.68 per cent, which was 18.99 per cent points lower than the average annual rate of change recorded in November 2024 at 38.67 per cent.
For the urban inflation rate, it stood at 13.61 per cent versus 23.49 per cent in the previous month and compared with the 37.10 per cent recorded in November 2024.
On a month-on-month basis, the urban inflation rate was 0.95 per cent in the review month, down by 0.18 per cent from the 1.14 per cent in October 2025. The corresponding 12-month average for the urban inflation rate was 20.80 per cent in November 2025, which was 14.27 per cent lower than the 35.07 per cent reported in November 2024.
The rural inflation rate in November 2025 was 15.15 per cent on a year-on-year basis, standing 17.12 per cent lower than the 32.27 per cent recorded in November 2024. On a month-on-month basis, the rural inflation rate in November 2025 was 1.88 per cent, up by 1.43 per cent when compared with the 0.45 per cent achieved in October 2025. The corresponding 12-month average for the rural inflation rate in November 2025 was 19.46 per cent. This was 11.24 per cent lower than the 30.71 per cent recorded in November 2024.
-
Feature/OPED6 years agoDavos was Different this year
-
Travel/Tourism9 years ago
Lagos Seals Western Lodge Hotel In Ikorodu
-
Showbiz3 years agoEstranged Lover Releases Videos of Empress Njamah Bathing
-
Banking7 years agoSort Codes of GTBank Branches in Nigeria
-
Economy3 years agoSubsidy Removal: CNG at N130 Per Litre Cheaper Than Petrol—IPMAN
-
Banking3 years agoFirst Bank Announces Planned Downtime
-
Banking3 years agoSort Codes of UBA Branches in Nigeria
-
Sports3 years agoHighest Paid Nigerian Footballer – How Much Do Nigerian Footballers Earn










