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Dangote Sugar Outlook Remains Positive Despite Market Share Dropping to 60%

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Dangote Sugar

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

The 2017 financial year was good for Dangote Sugar Refinery Plc despite some challenges the company faced.

During the year, the firm had to deal with less expensive sugar smuggled into the country, which impacted on its sales and market share, which dropped to 60 percent.

But despite this, the company managed to grow its revenue by 20 percent year-on-year, while the average selling prices went up by 43 percent y/y to offset a 16 percent y/y decline in sugar volumes sold during the year.

According to Ifedayo Olowoporoku of Vetiva Capital Management Limited, the top line figure came in at a record high of N204 billion, marginally below expectation.

She said the deviation was largely driven by lower than expected volume rollout in Q4’17 (3 percent q/q rise versus 11 percent Vetiva estimate) as well as some price cut recorded within the quarter.

Vetiva said whilst management noted that government’s effort to curtail smuggling has been somewhat impactful, the company has had to take further price cuts in 2018 amidst intense competition (Current price: c.N280,000/ton vs. FY’17 average: N312,720/ton).

Also worthy of note is the shift in regional sales breakdown with percentage of volumes to Lagos and other Western region moderating significantly to 37 percent (FY’16: 59 percent, FY’15: 56 percent).

According to Vetiva, the terrible road conditions around the Apapa environs in Lagos continue to impact business negatively.

From the analysis, supported by well contained Operating Expenses, stronger (y/y) selling price, as well as moderation in FX related production cost, FY’17 EBIT margin rose to 23 percent (FY’16: 10 percent).

With this, EBIT rose by 171 percent y/y to N47 billion, albeit 12 percent lower than had expected as price cuts in Q4’17 drove a 970bps q/q moderation.

Bottom line was further supported by an extraordinary Finance Income of N4.3 billion in Q4’17 (attributed to exchange rate gains) as well as N3.3 billion Investment Income recorded for FY’17 (FY’16: N601 million).

Overall, FY’17 PAT came in 8 percent above estimate at N39.8 billion, a significant leap from N14.4 billion recorded in FY’16. The Board proposed a final dividend of N1.25 (Total dividend: N1.75, Dividend yield: 13 percent).

Given improved FX liquidity and porous borders, Vetiva expects threat from smuggled sugar to remain pronounced in 2018. As such, it revised its Revenue forecast lower to N189 billion amidst lower y/y prices and volumes – particularly given previous year’s high base.

Though sustained stability in gas supply and benign global raw sugar prices are expected to support margins, the firm revised its FY’18 EBIT margin estimate 100bps lower to 22 percent (Previous: 23 percent; historic average of 20 percent) amidst lower selling prices.

“Also driven by our expectation of normalization in FX related gains, we estimate a N29 billion PAT for FY’18. We revise our 12 Month Target Price to N20.60 and maintain a HOLD rating on the stock. Dangote Sugar trades at a forward P/E of 9.0x vs Consumer Goods Coverage P/E of 22.0x.

“We note that the medium term outlook for Dangote Sugar remains largely positive – supported by the company’s backward integration project ‘Sugar for Nigeria’ where 1.08 million MT/PA of refined sugar is expected to be sourced from locally grown sugarcane across five sugar factories,” Vetiva said.

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

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Economy

OPEC Crude Output Falls to 37-Year Low Amid Iran Disruptions

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OPEC output cut

By Adedapo Adesanya

Crude production under the collective Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC ) fell in May to its lowest level in at least 37 years as the blockade of Iran by the United States and disruptions in the Persian Gulf, continued to limit output.

According to a Bloomberg survey released on Friday, output from the organisation’s 11 current members, including Nigeria, dropped by 1.22 million barrels per day to 16.33 million barrels per day last month.

Iran accounted for more than half of the decline. The data excludes the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which departed the cartel last month after six decades of membership.

War between a US-Israeli alliance and Iran has reduced oil supplies from the Middle East, largely closing the Strait of Hormuz waterway. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE and Kuwait have been forced to cut crude production. Iranian shipments face additional pressure following a US blockade of its ports imposed in mid-April.

Iranian output fell by 710,000 barrels per day to a five-year low of 2.34 million barrels per day in May, the survey showed. Central Command reported that US forces have redirected 127 commercial vessels to enforce the blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports.

Kuwait recorded the second-largest decline last month, with production falling by 310,000 barrels per day to 490,000 barrels per day, less than one-fifth of pre-war levels. Saudi Arabia, the group’s leader, saw output decrease by 240,000 barrels per day to 6.57 million barrels per day.

The production reductions have not prevented OPEC and its allies from raising quotas over recent months, continuing a year-long process of restoring output halted several years ago.

This comes ahead of a meeting scheduled to be held on Sunday, June 7, where a sub-group of seven members is expected to increase targets by 188,000 barrels again in July. The session is one of four online meetings OPEC and its partners plan to hold that day.

Delegates indicated the alliance has plans for two additional monthly quota increases in August and September. UAE output rose by 300,000 barrels per day to 2.44 million barrels per day in May, according to the survey.

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Economy

Debt Repayments: FG Overshoots Budget Allocation by 18%

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total debt stock

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The 2025 third quarter Budget Implementation Report from the Budget Office of the Federation has shown that the federal government exceeded the funds allocation for repayment of debts for the first nine months of the fiscal year by about 18 per cent.

In a report by Punch, the sum of N10.74 trillion was budgeted for debt servicing between January and September 2025, but the government used N12.63 trillion for the purpose, N1.90 trillion or 17.65 per cent more than the allocation for the year.

The funds were spent on domestic debts, foreign debts and sinking fund by the central government in nine months.

Business Post reports that for the whole year, the amount approved by the National Assembly and signed by President Bola Tinubu for debt repayments was N14.31 trillion.

Looking at the nine-month figures, domestic debt service gulped N6.23 trillion, exceeding its N5.39 trillion provision, while foreign debt service was N6.30 trillion versus the budget provision of N5.06 trillion.

According to the report, the figures indicated that 67.2 per cent of the federal government’s retained revenue of N18.63 trillion was spent on debt service in the first nine months of 2025. When the sinking fund is included, debt-related payments consumed about 67.8 per cent of revenue.

It was also observed that aggregate federal government revenue underperformed the budget by N12.03 trillion or 39.24 per cent, as actual revenue of N18.63 trillion fell short of the N30.67 trillion projected for the first three quarters.

In the third quarter alone, the government generated N7.70 trillion versus the quarterly target of N10.22 trillion as a result of persistent oil revenue shortfalls, despite stronger non-oil collections.

The debt burden also crowded out capital spending, as total capital expenditure was N3.10 trillion in the first nine months compared with the N17.58 trillion budgeted for the period, indicating that actual debt-related payments were more than four times capital expenditure.

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Economy

Unlisted Stock Investors’ Wealth Shrinks N30bn

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unlisted stock investors

By Adedapo Adesanya

The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange recorded a loss of 1.13 per cent on Thursday, June 4, shrinking the market capitalisation by N30.03 billion to N2.630 trillion from N2.660 trillion on Wednesday.

Similarly, this brought down the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) by 50.19 points to 4,396.08 points from the 4,446.27 points recorded a day earlier.

The loss was influenced by the overpowering of the bulls by the bears, after the bourse closed with two price gainers and three price losers, led by FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc, which slumped by N20.03 to sell at N190.38 per unit compared with midweek’s N210.41 per unit. Food Concepts Plc declined by 25 Kobo to trade at N2.50 per share versus the previous day’s N3.00 per share, and Acorn Petroleum Plc crumbled by 2 Kobo to end at N1.32 per unit, in contrast to the preceding session’s N1.34 per unit.

For the gainers, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc added N2.93 to close at N78.34 per share compared with the previous price of N75.41 per share, and Afriland Properties Plc gained 80 Kobo to settle at N16.80 per unit versus N16.00 per unit.

There was a slip in the volume of transactions yesterday by 46.8 per cent to 280,714 units from 527,221 units, as the value of trades dropped 66.5 per cent to N21.8 million from the preceding session’s N64.2 million, and the number of deals fell by 8.7 per cent to 42 deals from 46 deals.

Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc ended the session as the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, followed by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc with 2.3 billion units sold for N6.5 billion, and CSCS Plc with 64.7 million units traded for N4.4 billion.

GNI Plc also finished the day as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units valued at N8.4 billion, followed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units exchanged for N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units transacted for N415.7 million.

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