Economy
Has Naira-settled OTC FX Futures Stabilized Naira Exchange Rate?
By Quantitative Financial Analytics Ltd
To stem the continued devaluation of the Naira and to breathe some air of stability into the ever-volatile Naira/Dollar relationship, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) introduced some far-reaching measures at different times.
One of such measures was the launching of the Naira-settled OTC FX Futures Market. That “history making” event which commenced on June 27, 2016 made the CBN “the pioneer seller of the Naira-settled OTC FX Futures contracts on the FMDQ OTC Securities Exchange (FMDQ)”.
Before the advent of the Naira-settled OTC FX Futures, various governments in Nigeria had been tinkering with the Naira exchange rate management using different policy driven methodologies at different times.
In 1986, the Exchange Rate Liberalization Policy was introduced and with it, the Naira was devalued officially for the very first time on September 26, 1986 to be specific. From that day till today, the Naira has been heading south.
Economic and financial historians have it that Nigerian governments have tried to manage the exchange rate with the Foreign Exchange (Monitoring & Miscellaneous Provisions) (FEMM) Act of 1995, the two-way Quote System (market making) in the inter-bank FX market in 1996 and the Wholesale Dutch Auction System (WDAS) in 2006.
Unfortunately, it seems none of those worked. It is therefore not surprising that the currency futures market has been put in place as a way to “stabilize” the Naira.
It is now almost two years since the Naira-settled OTC FX Futures market was introduced and the question is ‘how far it has gone in stabilizing the Naira/Dollar exchange rate?’
Though the Naira/Dollar exchange rate continues to remain high, it is a bit comforting that the new FX currency risk exposure management instrument, (the Naira-settled OTC FX Futures), has been able to curb or curtail the speed at which the Naira depreciates relative to the Dollar. At least, for over six months the rate has remained in the N360s to the $.
When used properly, Currency Futures are a veritable instrument of managing foreign currency risk exposure. This works well when there are buyers and sellers and probably not so well when there are buyers with the CBN as the only seller.
By definition, a futures contract is an agreement between two parties where one (the buyer) agrees to buy and the other, (the seller) agrees to sell a given amount of the underlying asset or subject of the contract, at an agreed price on future date.
A futures contract entails a long position by one party and a corresponding short position by another. It does look like the CBN is the seller or the short position party in the Naira-settled OTC FX futures contracts although it is not apparent who the long position parties are.
By their nature, futures are zero sum games. Futures do not involve an initial cash flow, meaning that money does not change hands at the initiation of the contract except where commissions are charged but subsequently, it becomes apparent how much the parties to a contract will pay/receive as the price of the underlying instruments change from day to day.
The method of determining the amount payable/receivable by either party is called marking to market, (the technicalities involved in mark to market calculation will not be part of this discuss).
Market Activity
It is noteworthy to point out that the Currency Futures market in Nigeria has been very active and vibrant since inception although the momentum seems to be reducing as rates converge.
On the date that the market went live, it recoded $26.73 million in open interest. As at April 6, 2018, the open interest had increased to $3,278.43 million, an increase of 12176 percent. This underscores the extent of Nigeria’s dependence on and demand for the dollar, among other implications.
The implication of this is also that, if the CBN is the only party that holds the short positions, it means that the CBN has contracted to sell $3,278.34 million to various parties over a range of period depending on the maturity dates of the contracts.
However, the Naira-settled OTC FX Futures are non-deliverable, meaning that the CBN is not going to sell or deliver $3,278.34 million to the long position holders; rather, the CBN will pay them the difference between the contract price and the NIFEX/NAFEX rate as at the maturity date of each futures contract.
It will be recalled that the first futures contract matured on July 27, 2016, and the CBN had to pay N962.23 million to the long position holder.
For the almost two years of existence of the FX Futures market in Nigeria, 21 of such contracts have matured. Looking at the contract prices of the open trades in relation with the current exchange rate, there is indication that the CBN will be at the paying end of the contracts.
According to analysis by analysts at Quantitative Financial Analytics, the total notional value of all contracts from inception to date is $11.743 billion while total matured contracts stand at $8.464 billion, leaving current outstanding open interest at $3.278 billion.
Out of the matured contracts, the short position holders (probably the CBN) have paid an estimated $503.8 million to the long position holders, according to the analysis.
As said before, currency futures are derivatives, and derivatives are high risk instruments, if used properly, they are beneficial but when misused, they can lead to catastrophe.
To a large extent and in most recent times, the FX currency futures market has helped in stabilizing the Naira Dollar exchange rate although the decreasing momentum arising from convergence of rates may diminish its role in managing the currency risk exposure of Nigerians. We are watching
Economy
Nigeria’s Tax Sovereignty Not Affected by Deal With France—FIRS
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) has issued a statement providing further clarifications following comments and reports on the recent memorandum of understanding between Nigeria and France on taxation.
The MoU, signed on December 10, 2025, at the French Embassy in Abuja by the chairman of FIRS, Mr Zacch Adedeji and French Ambassador, Mr Marc Fonbaustier, on behalf of France’s Direction Générale des Finances Publiques (DGFiP), focuses on key areas, including digital transformation, workforce development, information exchange, transfer pricing, and tackling base erosion and profit shifting.
However, the MoU has been met with resistance from opposition coalition party African Democratic Congress (ADC) as well as Northern elders, which both raised serious questions about transparency, national sovereignty and the safety of Nigerian consumers’ data.
In response, the tax authority, which will become known as Nigerian Revenue Service (NRS) from next year, emphasised that the deal does not grant France access to Nigerian taxpayer data, digital systems, or any element of the country’s operational infrastructure.
“All existing Nigerian laws on data protection, cybersecurity, and sovereignty remain fully applicable and strictly enforced. The NRS, like its predecessor, FIRS, places the highest premium on national security and maintains rigorous standards for the protection of all taxpayer information.”
It said similar MoUs are signed by tax administrations around the world to promote collaboration, knowledge sharing, and the adoption of global best practices.
“The DGFIP is among the world’s most advanced tax authorities, with over a century of institutional experience and deep expertise in digital transformation, taxpayer services, governance, and public finance.
“This partnership simply enables Nigeria to learn from that experience. It is advisory, non-intrusive, and entirely under Nigeria’s control.
“Contrary to misconceptions, the MoU does not displace local technology providers, FIRS and the emerging Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) continue to work closely with Nigerian innovators such as NIBSS, Interswitch, Paystack, and Flutterwave. The MoU does not include the provision of technical services; it is limited to knowledge sharing, institutional strengthening, workforce development, policy support, and best-practice guidance.
“We welcome robust public engagement on tax reforms, but such conversations must reflect the actual content and purpose of the agreement. Rather than undermining Nigeria’s sovereignty, this MoU strengthens it by helping to build a modern, capable, globally competitive tax administration one firmly in command of its systems, data, and strategic direction.
“FIRS remains committed to transparency, professionalism and partnership that advance Nigeria’s long-term economic development,” it said in a statement.
Economy
Nigeria Okays 28 Firms for Gas-flaring Monetisation Project
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has issued permits to 28 companies under Nigerian Gas Flare Commercialisation Programme (NGFCP), a scheme that aims to end routine gas flaring to cut carbon emissions and use some of the gas to generate power.
Gas flaring is the controlled burning of natural gas that is released during oil extraction. The initiative marks a major step toward ending flaring and monetising wasted gas.
The projects could capture 250 to 300 million standard cubic feet per day (mmscfd) of gas currently flared, cut about 6 million tonnes of CO₂ annually, and unlock nearly 3 gigawatts of power generation potential, an NGFCP document showed.
Nigeria expects the initiative to attract up to $2 billion in investment and create more than 100,000 jobs. It could also produce 170,000 metric tonnes of LPG annually, providing clean cooking access for 1.4 million households.
The permits follow a competitive bid round that awarded 49 flare sites to 42 bidders after the programme was restructured post-COVID-19 and the Petroleum Industry Act.
Speaking on this, Mr Gbenga Komolafe, head of the NUPRC, during the presentation of the certificates to the 28 companies said, “The NGFCP is a pillar in our quest to eliminate routine flaring, reduce emissions, and enhance Nigeria’s global credibility in energy transition commitments.”
The programme aligns with Nigeria’s Energy Transition Plan and aims to turn flare gas from an environmental liability into an economic asset.
The 28 companies have signed key agreements, including Connection, Milestone Development and Gas Sales Agreements, and now qualify for permits to access flare gas.
Producers will benefit from reduced liabilities, improved Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) performance and alignment with the government’s decarbonisation agenda.
Development partners, including Power Africa, KPMG, World Bank’s Global Gas Flaring Reduction initiative, USAID and financiers, have supported the programme with technical and commercial frameworks.
Mr Komolafe said while the permits mark a milestone, engineering, construction and financing must begin in earnest.
“The real work starts now,” the official added. “This programme will create economic, industrial and environmental value while strengthening Nigeria’s energy transition.”
Economy
CSCS, Geo-Fluids, FrieslandCampina Lift NASD OTC Bourse by 0.62%
By Adedapo Adesanya
Three bellwether stocks lifted the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 0.62 per cent on Friday, December 12 with the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) jumping by 22.20 points to 3,600.43 points from 3,578.23 points.
In the same vein, the market capitalisation of the trading platform increased by N13.28 billion to close at N2.154 trillion from the previous day’s N2.140 trillion.
During the session, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc went up by N2.53 to close at N39.71 per share compared with the previous day’s N37.18 per share, Geo-Fluids Plc added 35 Kobo to its price to finish at N5.00 per unit versus Thursday’s closing price of N4.65 per unit, and FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc appreciated by 23 Kobo appreciation to sell at N60.23 per share versus N60.00 per share.
It was observed that yesterday, the price of Golden Capital Plc went down by N1.05 to N9.45 per unit from N10.50 per unit, and UBN Propertiy Plc declined by 21 Kobo to N2.01 per share from the N2.22 per share it was traded a day earlier.
There was a significant improvement in the level of activity for the day, as the volume of transactions increased by 6.2 per cent to 37.4 million units from the previous day’s 35.2 million units, the value of trades went up by 265.1 per cent to N4.9 billion from N1.4 billion, and the number of deals soared by 13.80 per cent to 33 deals from 29 deals.
Infrastructure Credit Guarantee Company (InfraCredit) Plc ended the last trading day of this week as the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 5.8 billion units valued at N16.4 billion, the second spot was taken by Okitipupa Plc with 178.9 million units traded for N9.5 billion, and third space was occupied by a new comer in MRS Oil Plc with 36.1 million units worth N4.9 billion.
InfraCredit Plc also finished the session as the most active stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 5.8 billion units transacted for N16.4 billion, followed by Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc with 1.2 billion units valued at N420.3 million, and Impresit Bakolori Plc with 537.0 million units sold for N524.9 million.
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