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Guinness Nigeria Earnings Rebound Despite Weakening Margins

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Guinness Nigeria

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

A subsidiary of Diageo Plc of the United Kingdom, Guinness Nigeria, on Tuesday, released its Q2-17/18 results, showing an improvement from what was obtained in the first quarter results.

Specifically, the brewer’s net profit increased to N2.09 billion against the N2.44 billion loss recorded last year.

This was mainly buoyed by continued revenue growth, better margin, and lower opex and finance charges.

The net profit was equally higher compared to Q1-17/18’s N41.4 million, but below our N2.70 billion estimate and consensus expectation of N2.8 billion.

In addition, the company’s revenue grew by 11 percent year-on-year and 36 percent quarter-on-quarter, sustained by festive demand, strong marketing effort, and relatively higher prices.

In a statement issued recently, DIAGEO said the group enjoyed positive price in Nigeria, and that mainstream spirits and value beer (Dubic precisely) recorded faster growth during the period.

Sales volume was reported to have grown by about 17 percent y/y over H1-17/18. Value beer (23 percent y/y), Guinness (14 percent y/y), Malta Guinness (6 percent y/y), and main stream spirits (22 percent y/y) recorded net sales growth in the first half.

According to analysts at Cordros Research, “While gross margin remained higher relative to the last financial year (+601 bps y/y), we are quite surprised by the 118 bps decline compared to the first quarter.

“Compared to our estimate, gross margin was lower by c.650 bps, and has weakened consistently since reaching record 55 percent in Q3-16/17, reflecting, as we stated in the Q1 note, growing contribution of value beer and inflationary pressure on key raw material input prices (Sorghum in this case).”

On the positive, opex was lower by 12 percent y/y and was below the estimate by 25 percent. Admin and distribution expenses were lower by 25 percent y/y and 24 percent y/y respectively while marketing expenses increased (following focused campaigns on Guinness) by 20 percent y/y.

EBITDA margin of 15.4 percent was reported, significantly higher y/y, but lower by 96 bps q/q.

Cordros said also worth highlighting is the 65 percent y/y decrease in finance charges, comprising N583 million loss (N857 million in Q2-16/17) on foreign exchange transactions and N374 million (vs. N1.9 billion in Q2-16/17) related to interest expense on loans and borrowings and overdraft facilities.

Compared to Q1, FX loss and interest expenses were lower by 74 percent and 77 percent respectively.

Gross debt now stands at N12.5 billion post-Rights Issue, and the consequent reduced interest burden will remain supportive of earnings for the rest of 2018.

Cordros noted that continued growth in revenue and the savings on both operating and financing costs bode well for GUINNESS’ earnings in 2018.

However, continued weakening margins dampens earnings growth expectation from 2019, as the effect of low revenue and finance cost bases tapers.

The stock has gained 20 percent YtD, and positive reaction to the result is expected with estimates under review.

Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via [email protected]

Economy

Tinubu Presents N58.47trn Budget for 2026 to National Assembly

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2026 budget tinubu

By Adedapo Adesanya

President Bola Tinubu on Friday presented a budget proposal of N58.47 trillion for the 2026 fiscal year titled Budget of Consolidation, Renewed Resilience and Shared Prosperity to a joint session of the National Assembly, with capital recurrent (non‑debt) expenditure standing at 15.25 trillion, and the capital expenditure at N26.08 trillion, while the crude oil benchmark was pegged at $64.85 per barrel.

Business Post reports that the Brent crude grade currently trades around $60 per barrel. It is also expected to trade at that level or lower next year over worries about oil glut.

At the budget presentation today, Mr Tinubu said the expected total revenue for the year is N34.33 trillion, and the proposal is anchored on a crude oil production of 1.84 million barrels per day, and an exchange rate of N1,400 to the US Dollar.

In terms of sectoral allocation, defence and security took the lion’s share with N5.41 trillion, followed by infrastructure at N3.56 trillion, education received N3.52 trillion, while health received N2.48 trillion.

Addressing the lawmakers, the President described the budget proposal as not “just accounting lines”.

“They are a statement of national priorities,” the president told the gathering. “We remain firmly committed to fiscal sustainability, debt transparency, and value‑for‑money spending.”

The presentation came at a time of heightened insecurity in parts of the country, with mass abductions and other crimes making headlines.

Outlining his government’s plan to address the challenge, President Tinubu reminded the gathering that security “remains the foundation of development”.

He said some of the measures in place to tame insecurity include the modernisation of the Armed Forces, intelligence‑driven policing and joint operations, border security, and technology‑enabled surveillance and community‑based peacebuilding and conflict prevention.

“We will invest in security with clear accountability for outcomes—because security spending must deliver security results,” the president said.

“To secure our country, our priority will remain on increasing the fighting capability of our armed forces and other security agencies by boosting personnel and procuring cutting-edge platforms and other hardware,” he added.

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Economy

PenCom Extends Deadline for Pension Recapitalisation to June 2027

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Pension Recapitalisation

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The deadline for the recapitalisation of the Nigerian pension industry has been extended by six months to June 2027 from December 2026.

This extension was approved by the National Pension Commission (PenCom), the agency, which regulates the sector in the country.

Addressing newsmen on Thursday in Lagos, the Director-General of PenCom, Ms Omolola Oloworaran, explained that the shift in deadline was to give operators more time to boost the capital base, dismissing speculations that the exercise had been suspended.

“The recapitalisation has not been suspended. We have communicated the requirements to the Pension Fund Administrators (PFAs), and we expect every operator to be compliant by June 2027. Anyone who is not compliant by then will lose their licence,” Ms Oloworaran told journalists.

She added that, “From a regulatory standpoint, our major challenge is ensuring compliance. We are working with ICPC, labour and the TUC to ensure employers remit pension contributions for their employees.”

The DG noted that engagements with industry operators indicated broad acceptance of the policy, with many PFAs already taking steps to raise additional capital or explore mergers and acquisitions.

“You may see some mergers and acquisitions in the industry, but what is clear is that the recapitalisation exercise is on track and the industry agrees with us,” she stated.

PenCom wants the PFAs to increase their capital base and has created three categories, with the first consists operators with Assets Under Management of N500 billion and above. They are expected to have a minimum capital of N20 billion and one per cent of AUM above N500 billion.

The second category has PFAs with AUM below N500 billion, which must have at least N20 billion as capital base.

The last segment comprises special-purpose PFAs such as NPF Pensions Limited, whose minimum capital was pegged at N30 billion, and the Nigerian University Pension Management Company Limited, whose minimum capital was fixed at N20 billion.

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Economy

Three Securities Sink NASD Exchange by 0.68%

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NASD securities exchange

By Adedapo Adesanya

Three securities weakened the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 0.68 per cent on Thursday, December 18.

According to data, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc led the losers’ group after it slipped by N2.87 to N36.78 per share from N39.65 per share, Golden Capital Plc depreciated by 77 Kobo to end at N6.98 per unit versus the previous day’s N7.77 per unit, and FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc dropped 19 Kobo to sell at N60.00 per share versus Wednesday’s closing price of N60.19 per share.

At the close of business, the market capitalisation lost N16.81 billion to finish at N2.147 billion compared with the preceding session’s N2.164 trillion, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) declined by 24.76 points to 3,589.88 points from 3,614.64 points.

Yesterday, the volume of securities bought and sold increased by 49.3 per cent to 30.5 million units from 20.4 million units, the value of securities surged by 211.8 per cent to N225.1 million from N72.2 million, and the number of deals jumped by 33.3 per cent to 28 deals from 21 deals.

Infrastructure Credit Guarantee Company (InfraCredit) Plc remained the most traded stock by value with a year-to-date sale of 5.8 billion units valued at N16.4 billion, followed by Okitipupa Plc with 178.9 million units transacted for N9.5 billion, and MRS Oil Plc with 36.1 million units worth N4.9 billion.

Similarly, InfraCredit Plc ended as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 5.8 billion units traded for N16.4 billion, trailed by Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc with 1.2 billion units sold for N420.7 million, and Impresit Bakolori Plc with 536.9 million units exchanged for N524.9 million.

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