Economy
Vetiva Predicts 20% Growth for Nigerian Stock Market in 2018
By Dipo Olowookere
Investors in the Nigerian capital market should expect more gains in 2018 as the nation’s stock market will further grow next year, analysts at Vetiva Research have predicted.
In its recently released report titled ‘Nigeria 2018 Outlook: Acta Non Verba,’ Vetiva research said the growth would be boosted by stability in the country’s foreign exchange (forex) market in 2017.
“Despite the 2017 equity market rally driven by a partial liberalization of the country’s exchange rate regime, the Nigerian Stock Exchange remains relatively undervalued.
“Now, favourable external conditions support further growth; bolstered by stability in FX and energy supply, receding cost pressure and strengthening consumer demand.
“Amidst this, we project a strong equity market performance in 2018, with an estimated full year return of 15 percent-20 percent (Bear: -10 percent, Bull: 30 percent).
“Meanwhile, late-2017 likely marked the end of Nigeria’s golden yield environment as the monetary authorities chart a path towards lower interest rates in the country.
“Material monetary easing is expected in 2018, the intensity of which would be driven by the relative demands of economic growth and the pace of moderation in inflation,” the 169-page report stated.
The report said in 2017, the Nigerian bourse enjoyed a very good performance, advancing 43 percent by the close of business on December 15 and chief among the drivers of this surge was the introduction of the ‘Investors & Exporters’ foreign exchange window (I&E window) which revived investor confidence and boosted liquidity in the foreign exchange market (FX).
“Going forward, we anticipate continued progress on this front amidst a positive outlook for FX earnings on the back of stable oil prices and production levels. Supplementing this, recent regulation points towards a more significant role for domestic institutions in the Nigerian market which would inevitably support demand.
“Amidst these, an improving economic environment (2017E GDP growth: 0.6%, 2018F GDP growth: 2.0%) would buoy company earnings and risk appetite in the market, especially given our expectation of lower interest rates in 2018,” it said.
Continuing, the report said, “We expect this performance to be driven by strong growth across undervalued Tier 2 banking names and continued recovery in the consumer goods sector.
“In the long run, steps to improve corporate governance and investor sophistication are necessary to achieve the desired level of market deepening and diversity.
“We consider initiatives such as a thriving derivatives market and demutualization of the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) as precursors to this and hope to see progress on these fronts in 2018.”
On the economy, the Vetiva report said in the year 2018, Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to increase by 2 percent.
“Amidst brighter prospects for global economic growth and the OPEC decision to extend the output cut agreement through 2018, we expect Nigeria to pursue its growth agenda within a relatively favourable global economic landscape.
“A promising revenue outlook and another record budget present a case for a year of strong fiscal stimulus – contingent on a deviation from the recent trend of delayed budget passage. The FX market, a significant win in 2017, would remain essential in the coming year.
“Overall, driven by expansive fiscal and monetary policies, as well as strengthening consumer wallets, we anticipate 2.0 percent y/y GDP for Nigeria 2018 in our base scenario (Bear: -0.3 percent y/y, Bull: 2.9 percent y/y). As the Nigerian economy looks set to reach another gear, the timing of the potential political disruption from 2019 elections is unwelcome.
“Despite this, we anticipate an outsized influence of the imminent elections on economic and political stakeholders as 2018 winds down, hopefully only at a minor cost to economic activities,” the report said.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The N3.04 billion rights issue of Regency Alliance Insurance Plc is expected to open on Monday, June 22, 2026, and close on Friday, July 3, 2026, with shareholders urged to participate.
The underwriting firm recently signed an agreement on the rights issue, with board members, management, issuing houses, legal advisers, stockbrokers, and other key stakeholders in attendance.
Regency Alliance is offering to shareholders 3,201,000,000 ordinary shares of 50 Kobo each at 95 Kobo per share on the basis of one new ordinary share for every five ordinary shares held.
The purpose of the fresh capital raise is to bolster the company’s solvency ratios, support business growth, and invest in digital infrastructure and new product development.
The insurance company noted that the rights issue provides an opportunity to existing shareholders to subscribe for additional shares in proportion to their current holdings, protecting them from dilution while enabling them to participate in the organisation’s future growth.
“This capital raise will give us the firepower to meet evolving risks, expand our reach, and deepen the promise we make to every policyholder; that Regency Alliance will be there when it matters most,” the acting chairman of Regency Alliance, Mr Wale Taiwo (SAN), stated.
“We are particularly encouraged by the unwavering support of our shareholders who have stood by the company through its growth journey. We urge all eligible shareholders to take advantage of this rights issue and fully exercise their rights.
“By doing so, they will not only protect their investment from dilution but also participate directly in the exciting growth opportunities that lie ahead for Regency Alliance Insurance,” he added.
Also commenting, the Managing Director of the firm, Mr Bode Oseni, said, “Regency Alliance has always prided itself on being agile, customer-focused xd, and financially sound. The proceeds from this rights issue will accelerate our digital transformation, enhance claims efficiency, and enable us to introduce innovative products tailored to SMEs, Gen Z, and other underserved segments across Nigerian and beyond. We are not merely raising capital; we are raising our ambition.”
“We remain optimistic that our shareholders will embrace this opportunity and demonstrate their confidence in the company’s future by taking up their rights. Together, we are building a strong and more competitive insurance institution,” he added.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil palm processing firm, Okitipupa Plc, and two other securities weakened by the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 0.4 per cent on Thursday, June 18.
During the trading day, Okitipupa Plc lost N20.00 to end at N280.00 per share compared with the previous day’s N300.00 per share, NASD Plc declined by 36 Kobo to finish at N37.00 per unit versus N37.36 per unit, and Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc depreciated by 23 Kobo to N86.34 per share from N86.57 per share.
As a result, the market capitalisation retreated by N10.39 billion to N2.609 trillion from N2.619 trillion, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) slid by 17.36 points to 4,361.09 points from 4,378.45 points.
Business Post reports that the sole price gainer for the session was Afriland Properties Plc, which improved by 65 Kobo to N16.20 per unit from N15.55 per unit.
Yesterday, the volume of securities transacted by market participants shrank by 71.6 per cent to 792,835 units from Wednesday’s 2.8 million units, the value of securities fell by 61.8 per cent to N49.0 million from N128.3 million, while the number of deals went down by 39.4 per cent to 20 deals from 33 deals.
Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc remained the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units sold for N8.4 billion, followed by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc with 2.3 billion units valued at N6.5 billion, and CSCS Plc with 67.7 million units traded for N4.7 billion.
GNI Plc also closed the day as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, followed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units exchanged for N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units sold for N415.7 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira free-fall against the US Dollar continued in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Thursday, June 18, losing 0.24 per cent or N3.23 to trade at N1,363.30/$1 compared with the previous day’s N1,360.07/$1.
However, the domestic currency appreciated against the Pound Sterling in the official market during the session by N19.12 to trade at N1,805.69/£1 versus midweek’s N1,824.81/£1, and gained N12.89 on the Euro to sell at N1,565.07/€1, in contrast to the preceding day’s N1,577.96/€1.
At the GTBank FX counter, the Naira lost N1 against the Dollar to trade at N1,373/$1 versus Wednesday’s closing rate of N1,372/$1, and at the black market, it remained unchanged at N1,385/$1.
Tightness in FX liquidity continued to pressure the local currency, contributing to a decline in the official exchange rate due to rising demand for foreign payments.
Analysts also attribute the market liquidity dynamics to the lack of substantial Open Market Operation (OMO) bill positioning by foreign portfolio investors, who are key sources of hard currency inflows for the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
The apex bank’s daily FX report revealed that interbank FX turnover increased to $69.918 million across 85 interbank transactions, up from $54.293 million the previous day.
As for the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin (BTC) traded below $63,000 after losing 1.7 per cent to close at $62,742.28 on Thursday, as risk assets sold off worldwide, erasing the gains it made earlier in the week on the back of the US-Iran peace deal.
The pressure came from a wider retreat in markets as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returned to normal under the signed US-Iran deal and eased what had been a historic supply shock.
Attention now turns to talks over Iran’s nuclear programme, with Vice President JD Vance saying a 60-day clock to settle the deal’s details has started.
During the session, Solana (SOL) crashed by 3.3 per cent to $68.68, Ripple (XRP) depreciated by 2.7 per cent to $1.13, Cardano (ADA) slid 2.4 per cent to $0.1606, Binance Coin (BNB) slumped 2.0 per cent to $576.11, Dogecoin (DOGE) slipped by 1.9 per cent to $0.0826, and Ethereum (ETH) went down by 1.7 per cent to $1,696.74.
However, TRON (TRX) improved by 0.1 per cent to $0.3204, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) traded flat at $1.00 each.
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