Economy
Inflation to Marginally Drop to 15.91% in October—FSDH
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
Data released last month by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) revealed that inflation in the month of September 2017 declined to 15.98 percent from 16.01 percent in August, though food prices still remained high.
For the month of October 2017, which is due for release by the NBS later this month, precisely on Saturday, November 18, 2017, analysts at FSDH are predicting a marginal fall in the rate.
According to its Inflation Watch report released on Thursday, FSDH Research says it expects the inflation rate (year-on-year) to drop to 15.91 percent in October 2017 from 15.98 percent reported in the month of September 2017.
It explained that the expected marginal decline in the inflation rate is premised on slower increase in the food and non-food divisions, compared with the previous month.
FSDH Research said the monthly Food Price Index (FPI) released on Thursday by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) showed that the Index averaged 176.4 points, 1.26 percent lower than the revised value for September 2017, but 2.45 percent higher than the October 2016 figure.
According to the FAO, all categories of commodities used in the calculation of the Index dropped in value with the exception of cereal.
The FAO Dairy Index fell by 4.19 percent from September 2017 as the prices of butter, skim milk powder (SMP) and whole milk powder (WMP) eased in October.
The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index was down by 1.06 percent. This was as a result of abundant inventory levels of soy and palm oil in Malaysia, Southeast Asia and the United States of America coupled with a favourable outlook for global supply in 2017/18.
The FAO Meat Price Index was down by 0.9 percent as prices of ovine and pig meat declined due to reduced import demand. The FAO Sugar Price Index was down by 0.67% in October 2017 on the heels of reports on improved supply conditions in 2017/2018 in the main sugar producing region of Brazil.
Also, a weaker Brazilian Real and the slowdown in demand from China weighed down on the value of the Index.
On the flip side, the FAO Cereal Price Index was up by 0.65 percent in October 2017 as a result of the increase in the prices of rice and maize. Increased competition amongst exporters and sufficient supplies weighed on the prices of wheat.
FSDH said its analysis indicates that the value of the Naira depreciated at the inter-bank market, while it appreciated at the parallel market. The Naira lost by 0.02% at the inter-bank market to close at $/N305.80 while it gained 0.83 percent at the parallel market to close at $/N362.50 at the end of October.
The Naira appreciation in the parallel market and the drop in the prices of food at the international market led to a drop in the prices of some consumer goods in Nigeria.
The prices of most of the food items we monitored in October 2017 moderated downwards, while a few items recorded price appreciation. The movement in the prices of food items during the month resulted in 0.85 percent increase in our Food and Non-Alcoholic Index to 256 points.
“Our Food and Non-Alcoholic Index increased by 20.24 percent from 212.90 points in October 2016. We also noticed increase in the prices of Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels divisions between September 2017 and October 2017.
“Our model indicates that the general price movement in the consumer goods and services in October 2017 increased the Composite Consumer Price Index (CCPI) to 243.04 points, representing a month-on-month increase of 0.77 percent.
“We estimate that the increase in the CCPI in October 2017 would produce an inflation rate of 15.91 percent marginally lower than the 15.98 percent recorded in September 2017, the firm said.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The duo of MRS Oil and FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc weakened the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 0.68 per cent on Friday, June 5.
MRS Plc lost N19.00 during the session to sell at N171.00 per share compared with Thursday’s value of N190.00 per share, and FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc depreciated by N8.70 to finish at N181.68 per unit compared with the preceding session’s N190.38 per unit.
As a result, the market capitalisation further lost N22.59 billion to close at N2.607 trillion versus the N2.630 trillion it ended a day earlier, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) dropped 37.76 points to settle at 4,358.32 points, in contrast to the previous day’s 4,396.08 points.
The alternative stock market closed the last trading day of this week with a price gainer, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc, which gained 6 Kobo to quote at N78.40 per share compared with the preceding session’s N78.34 per share. However, it could not prevent the market from going down at the close of business.
Yesterday, the volume of securities bought and sold by investors went down by 50.0 per cent to 140,345 units from the preceding day’s 280,714 units, the value of stocks decreased by 16.5 per cent to N17.9 million from the previous session’s N21.5 million, and the number of deals carried out by market participants fell by 35.7 per cent to 27 deals from the 42 deals recorded on Thursday.
When trading activities closed for the day, Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc remained the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units exchanged for N8.4 billion, trailed by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc with 2.3 billion units sold for N6.5 billion, and CSCS Plc with 64.7 million units traded for N4.4 billion.
GNI Plc also ended the session as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, followed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units transacted for N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units valued at N415.7 million.
By Dipo Olowookere
Renewed interest in financial stocks and others lifted the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited by 0.15 per cent on Friday.
Customs Street closed higher yesterday despite the 1.37 per cent loss recorded by the consumer goods sector as a result of profit-taking.
This was offset by gains in the other key sectors of the local bourse, as the insurance counter chalked up 1,14 per cent. The banking space appreciated by 0.90 per cent, the industrial goods segment grew by 0.46 per cent, and the energy sector expanded by 0.01 per cent.
Consequently, the All-Share Index (ASI) went up by 366.00 points to 242,593.31 points from 242,227.31 points, and the market capitalisation gained N235 billion to close at N155.594 trillion compared with the previous day’s N155.359 trillion.
The trio of International Energy Insurance, Abbey Mortgage Bank, and DAAR Communications improved by 10.00 per cent each yesterday to N7.26, N9.35, and N1.98, respectively, while Zichis advanced by 9.39 per cent to N32.38, with Sovereign Trust Insurance up by 8.70 per cent to N2.50.
On the flip side, Academy Press lost 9.84 per cent to quote at N8.25, University Press depreciated by 9.73 per cent to N5.10, Africa Prudential dipped by 2.63 per cent to N12.95, Chams crumbled by 2.44 per cent to N4.00, and International Breweries slipped by 1.59 per cent to N12.35.
Business Post reports that the market breadth index was positive during the session after recording 37 appreciating equities and 14 depreciating equities, implying strong investor sentiment.
Abbey Mortgage Bank led the activity chart with a turnover of 164.1 million units worth N1.5 billion, Ellah Lakes sold 76.7 million units for N767.2 million, Access Holdings transacted 44.8 million units valued at N1.1 billion, Linkage Assurance exchanged 23.0 million units worth N41.2 million, and The Initiates traded 20.2 million units for N562.1 million.
At the close of trades, market participants transacted 608.5 million units worth N32.0 billion in 53,826 deals versus the 588.5 million units valued at N27.9 billion executed in 57,352 deals in the previous session. This showed that the number of deals eased by 6.15 per cent, the volume of transactions rose by 3.40 per cent, and the value of transactions soared by 14.70 per cent.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira further depreciated against the United States Dollar by N3.46 or 0.25 per cent to N1,362.21/$1 from N1,358.75/$1 in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Friday, June 5.
However, it appreciated against the Pound Sterling in the same market window during the session by N4.47 to trade at N1,823.59/£1 compared with the previous day’s N1,828.06/£1, and gained N7.00 against the Euro to sell at N1,574.58/€1, in contrast to Thursday’s closing price of N1,581.58/€1.
For another trading session, the Nigerian Naira maintained stability against the Dollar in the parallel market and the GTBank forex counter on Friday at N1,375/$1 and N1,372/$1, respectively.
The Naira is expected to remain strong in the near term, backed by a rise in external reserves, which are nearing $50 billion, enhancing analysts’ confidence about its outlook in the second half of 2026.
Heightened global uncertainty has reduced the incentive for importers and corporates to demand FX, as cautious trade weighs on import needs. Analysts estimate a $40 billion net FX position for the year, a projection anchored in oil windfall gains.
As for the cryptocurrency market, prices remained depressed following a strong US jobs report that spurred markets to price in higher-for-longer interest rates, sending Treasury yields and the dollar up while hammering stocks, especially AI-related names. Crypto markets saw heavy leverage washouts with about $1.6 billion in positions liquidated over 24 hours.
Ethereum (ETH) gave up 4.9 per cent to trade at $1,584.68, Solana (SOL) fell by 3.3 per cent to $63.22, Bitcoin (BTC) crashed by 1.9 per cent to $61,333.23, Dogecoin (DOGE) slipped by 1.8 per cent to $0.0821, and Ripple (XRP) moderated by 1.8 per cent to $1.09.
Further, TRON (TRX) dropped 1.6 per cent to sell at $0.3197, Binance Coin (BNB) slumped by 1.0 per cent to $581.18, and Cardano (ADA) declined by 0.4 per cent to $0.1589, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) gained 0.07 to sell at $0.9997, and US Dollar Coin (USDC) closed flat at $0.9998.
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