Banking
Stock Analysis: Zenith Bank Sets for Impressive FY-2017 Performance Amid Credit Loss Pressure
Zenith Bank recorded a 44.57 percent growth in interest income in H1-17. On our 12.98 percent estimated assets yield, we believe the run rate will be sustained for the rest of the year, equating to 36.38 percent y/y growth in interest income to N524.46 billion.
The bank’s portfolio of investment securities, treasury bills, and quality loan books will be catalysts of the growth in assets yield. We also forecast NIR to surge by 51.16 percent to N186.60 billion, buoyed by strong trading income, revaluation gains, and marginal write-back of previous provisions.
Overall, we forecast a 39.97 percent growth in gross earnings to N711.06 billion in 2017F.
That said, PBT and PAT growth will be muted, owing to the impact of the elevated cost of refinancing maturing FCY obligations, higher impairment provisioning on transportation (specifically the aviation sector), communication and general commerce exposure, and a surge in total operating expenses (opex).
In a bid to meet maturing FCY obligations during the year, Zenith Bank issued the second tranche of its $1 billion Global Medium-Term Note Programme established in 2014. The programme was completed in May and the bank successfully raised $500 million (at a coupon rate of 7.375 percent, a 113bps premium over the first tranche).
The bank’s balance sheet as at H1-17 ending reveals that FCY borrowings worth $593.80 million (KEXIM $16.44 million, ABSA Bank $151 million, JP Morgan $75.05 million, Standard Bank $273.83 million, First Rand Bank $6.52 million, Citi Global Markets $51.96 million, and BACA $18 million) are due for maturity between May and October 2017.
We believe both the Eurobond and the newly secured borrowings during the year (SMBCE $49.75 million and AFC $181.9 million) came at higher cost relative to the maturing loans (mostly concessional borrowings) having estimated weighted average rate of 5.15 percent.
Accordingly, and given the continued tight domestic interest rate environment, we expect cost of funds to expand 125 bps y/y to 5.40 percent in 2017F – translating to interest expense of N235.88 billion.
However, we expect the stronger expansion in asset yields will offset the growth in funding cost, thus, we forecast an uptick in net-interest margin by 25 bps to 7.65 percent.
In H1-17, Zenith Bank made a 30 percent provision on its exposure to 9 Mobile (formerly Etisalat Nigeria) which resulted in a surge in credit loss provision (COR rose to 3.6 percent, from 1.3 percent in Q1-17 and H1-16) to N42.40 billion. Though we acknowledge the fact that a haircut is eminent on the syndicated exposure to 9Mobile, it is our understanding that most of the provisions booked in H1-17 by Zenith Bank was on its bilateral loan to the telco and not entirely on its share as a part of the syndicate.
Despite the bank restructuring 11.8 percent of its gross loan in H1-17(with oil & gas exposure representing 10.1 percent of the restructured exposure) as well as declassified some power exposure (down to 1.0 percent from 43.0 percent in FY-16), NPL still rose to 4.3 percent (N99.19 billion) from 3.0 percent (N71.37 billion) in FY-16, as the bank classified 37.6 percent (vs. 1.5 percent in FY-16) and 27.4 percent (vs. 18.5 percent in FY-16) of its transportation and general commerce exposure as NPL.
Overall, for 2017F, we estimate Zenith Bank’s NPL to increase to 4.50 percent, from 3.00 percent in FY-16 and 4.30 percent in H1-17, and cost of risks to rise to 2.68 percent, translating to a credit loss provision of N77.13 billion in 2017F.
We estimate opex to rise 29.63 percent y/y to N226.24 billion in 2017F (driven largely by higher regulatory levies on operating expenses) – translating to a 415 bps y/y expansion in CIR to 56.84 percent and growth in operational leverage to 4.5x (from 4.0x in FY-16).
Accordingly, we expect the impact of the increase in opex to limit the trickling down effect of the rise in gross earnings – we estimate PBT and PAT to rise 9.61 percent and 8.28 percent to N171.81 billion and N140.38 billion, respectively.
While acknowledging the impressive performance across income lines in H1-17, which resulted in an upward revision in earnings for the year, we believe the revaluation-bloated growth in NIR will taper in 2018, and factoring in the impact of the adoption of IFRS 9 from 2018 (with management guiding to a 20 percent impact on credit loss provision and 1 percent drop in CAR), we now expect PAT to grow lower than previously estimated over 2018F-2019F.
Hence, we revise our target price on the stock downward to N27.18 (Previous: N30.63), translating to 13.26 percent upside from current price of 24.00 (as at 21/08/2017).
Zenith Bank is currently trading at 2017F P/BVPS of 1.0x (above peer average of 0.9x and below the 5-year average of 1.1x) and P/E of 5.6x (above peer average of 5.2x and below the 5-year average of 5.9x). HOLD.
Banking
How FairMoney Is Powering Financial Inclusion for Nigerian Hustlers
By Margaret Banasko
Urbanization is reshaping Nigeria’s economic landscape, creating new possibilities for millions of young people who relocate each year in search of opportunity. Cities like Lagos, Kano, and Abuja continue to expand as ambitious Nigerians leave their hometowns with the hope of building stable, sustainable livelihoods.
Recent figures highlight the pace of this shift. As of 2024, more than half of Nigeria’s population – around 128 million people – live in urban areas. Many of these individuals are young entrepreneurs and self-employed workers determined to turn their skills, ideas, and hustle into meaningful income. However, navigating the financial requirements needed to sustain and grow a small business is often challenging for those operating in informal or early-stage sectors.
This is where digital financial platforms have become transformational. With only a mobile phone, an internet connection, and a Bank Verification Number (BVN), Nigerians are increasingly able to access a wider range of financial tools designed to support their daily needs and long-term goals. FairMoney is among the institutions driving this progress by offering services that meet people where they are and support their ambition to grow.
Aigbe Osasere’s experience reflects this evolution. He moved from Benin City to Lagos with the goal of establishing a fish farming business in Ijegun, Alimosho. His vision was clear: create a small, efficient operation that could supply fresh fish to local buyers. Like many small business owners, he needed reliable access to funds to purchase fingerlings, buy feed, replace equipment, and maintain steady production. Managing these cycles required financial tools that matched the fast pace of his operations.
Through the FairMoney app, Aigbe gained access to digital banking services immediately after completing BVN verification. The availability of instant loans provided the flexibility he needed to restock quickly and maintain continuous production. For a business model where timing is central to profitability, this support allowed him to keep his operations consistent and responsive to customer demand.
Opening a FairMoney bank account and receiving a physical debit card further strengthened his business structure. Bulk buyers began paying him directly into his account, giving him clearer financial records and better visibility into his daily revenue. With his debit card, he could purchase supplies, withdraw cash conveniently, and manage his finances in a more organized way.
Aigbe also adopted FairMoney’s savings features to help him preserve and grow his earnings. By setting aside a portion of his daily sales, he is gradually building the capital needed to increase his fish tanks, expand his capacity, and move toward a more scalable operation.
Beyond supporting his business, FairMoney has become part of his everyday life. From the app, he sends money to family members, pays bills, buys airtime and data, and settles electricity tokens quickly and efficiently. This convenience allows him to focus more fully on running and growing his business.
Aigbe’s story is one example of how digital banking is broadening access to financial services across Nigeria. Entrepreneurs, freelancers, traders, and young workers are increasingly leveraging digital platforms to manage money, plan for growth, and participate more actively in the financial system.
As more Nigerians pursue self-employment and urban entrepreneurship, tools that offer accessibility, speed, and flexibility are playing an important role in supporting their progress. With FairMoney, many are finding a dependable partner that aligns with their goals, their pace, and their vision for the future.
Margaret Banasko is the Head of Marketing at FairMoney MFB
Banking
CBN Revokes Operating Licences of Aso Savings, Union Homes
By Adedapo Adesanya
The operating licences of Aso Savings and Loans Plc and Union Homes Savings and Loans Plc have been revoked by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) as part of efforts to strengthen the mortgage sub-sector and enforce compliance with banking regulations.
Mortgage banks are financial institutions that provide home loans and other housing finance products, and so, they are strictly regulated by the CBN to protect customers and ensure the stability of Nigeria’s financial system.
According to a post by the Acting Director of Corporate Communications of CBN, Mrs Hakama Ali, on the apex bank’s X handle on Tuesday, the affected institutions were accused of violating several provisions of the Banks and Other Financial Institutions Act (BOFIA) 2020 and the Revised Guidelines for Mortgage Banks in Nigeria.
The revocation is part of the central bank’s ongoing efforts to maintain a safe and reliable banking sector, protect customers’ deposits, and ensure that only financially sound institutions operate in the mortgage market.
“The breaches included failure to meet the minimum paid-up share capital requirement, insufficient assets to meet liabilities, being critically undercapitalised with a capital adequacy ratio below the prudential minimum, and non-compliance with directives issued by the CBN,” the post noted.
The CBN emphasised that the revocation aligns with its mandate to ensure financial system stability and maintain public confidence in the banking sector, assuring it is committed to promoting a sound and resilient financial system in Nigeria.
Banking
Sagecom N225bn Case: Apex Court Cuts Fidelity Bank Judgment Debt to N30bn
By Adedapo Adesanya
A five-member panel of the Supreme Court, led by Justice Lawal Garba, last Friday ruled in favour of Fidelity Bank in its appeal against Sagecom Concepts Limited.
The judgment brings definitive closure to a legacy case that has attracted attention across the financial sector for more than two decades. It also marks a significant victory for Fidelity Bank in a long-running legal dispute.
In a motion dated October 8, 2025, Fidelity Bank sought clarification from the Supreme Court, requesting a consequential order that the judgment debt be paid in Naira. The bank also asked that the interest rate be set at 19.5 per cent per annum rather than 19.5 per cent compounded daily.
It also requested the exchange rate used for conversion be the rate applicable as of the date of the High Court judgment, in line with the Supreme Court’s decision in Anibaba v. Dana Airlines.
Fidelity Bank further requested the judgment debt be fixed at N30,197,286,603.13 and that interest on this amount be payable at 19.5 per cent per annum until full settlement.
In the judgment delivered by Justice Adamu Jauro, the apex court granted the bank’s first three prayers but declined the fourth and fifth. As a result, the judgment sum will be paid in Naira at an annual interest rate of 19.5 per cent, rather than the daily compounded rate previously awarded by the High Court.
The Supreme Court equally affirmed that the applicable exchange rate should be the rate as of the date of the High Court judgment, consistent with its earlier decision in Anibaba v. Dana Airlines.
The dispute originated from a legacy transaction involving the former FSB International Bank, which merged with Fidelity Bank in 2005. It stemmed from a 2002 credit facility extended to G. Cappa Plc and subsequent legal proceedings tied to the collateral.
This ruling provides finality for years of litigation and confirms a significantly lower liability than the N225 billion previously speculated in the review of decisions leading up to the decision.
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