Economy
South Sudan Inflation Drops to 370% in January—IMF
By Dipo Olowookere
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says the annual inflation rate of South Sudan rose to about 550 percent in September 2016 before declining to 370 percent in January 2017.
On March 15, 2017, the Executive Board of the world body concluded the Article IV consultation with the youngest country in the world.
The IMF affirmed that South Sudan faces enormous economic and humanitarian challenges in the aftermath of internal conflict and external shocks.
It noted that the relapse into violence a few months after forming a transitional government of national unity in April 2016 compounded the humanitarian crisis and derailed the peace process, observing that the conflict has contributed to the deaths of thousands and led to severe food insecurity for nearly half of the population, as well as a substantial flight of refugees to neighbouring countries.
It pointed out that economic conditions have deteriorated rapidly since the beginning of the civil conflict in late 2013, adding that real GDP growth declined by nearly 20 percent in the two years through 2015/16.
The IMF said conflict and the collapse of oil prices led to a decline in oil production and export proceeds, stressing that falling government revenue and rising security-related spending caused the fiscal deficit to rise rapidly, which exacerbated the economic instability.
Monetization of the fiscal deficit led to strong money growth, high inflation and precipitous exchange rate depreciation. Since December 2015, the South Sudanese pound has lost more than 95 percent of its value against the US Dollar, it said.
The IMF said authorities shifted economic policy course in late 2016 with the passing of a new budget for 2016/17, which incorporates bold fiscal measures that could go a long way to restore macroeconomic stability and strengthen public financial management.
Preliminary information indicates a substantial reduction in the fiscal deficit for the first half of the fiscal year and significant moderation in money growth, the global financial institution said.
The medium-term outlook faces challenges and significant downside risks. Without significant progress toward peace and economic stabilization, the economic trajectory for South Sudan is highly unstable, and the country risks falling into a spiraling trap of deteriorating economic performance and worsening security conditions with continued high humanitarian costs, it noted, adding that a sustainable medium-term outlook is predicated on achieving progress on normalization of the political and security situation, sustained economic adjustment and reforms, and renewed access to external financing.
It observed that assuming that peace was achieved, the fiscal deficit could fall to 2–3 percent of GDP in the coming years consistent with a return to single digit inflation and exchange rate stability. In the next five years, annual GDP growth could increase to 5-6 percent, reflecting a recovery in oil production and in non-oil GDP.
By Dipo Olowookere
The bears consolidated their dominance on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited on Wednesday, inflicting an additional 0.09 per cent cut on the market.
At midweek, the market capitalisation of the domestic stock exchange went down by N73 billion to N124.754 trillion from the preceding day’s N124.827 trillion, and the All-Share Index (ASI) slipped by 114.32 points to 194,370.20 points from 194,484.52 points.
A look at the sectoral performance showed that only the consumer goods index closed in green, gaining 1.19 per cent due to buying pressure.
However, sustained profit-taking weakened the insurance space by 3.79 per cent, the banking index slumped by 2.07 per cent, the energy counter went down by 0.24 per cent, and the industrial goods sector shrank by 0.22 per cent.
Business Post reports that 25 equities ended on the gainers’ chart, and 54 equities finished on the losers’ table, representing a negative market breadth index and weak investor sentiment.
RT Briscoe lost 10.00 per cent to sell for N10.35, ABC Transport crashed by 10.00 per cent to N6.75, SAHCO depreciated by 9.98 per cent to N139.35, Haldane McCall gave up 9.93 per cent to trade at N3.99, and Vitafoam Nigeria decreased by 9.93 per cent to N112.50.
Conversely, Jaiz Bank gained 9.95 per cent to settle at N14.03, Okomu Oil appreciated by 9.93 per cent to N1,765.00, Trans-nationwide Express chalked up 9.77 per cent to close at N2.36, Fortis Global Insurance moved up by 9.72 per cent to 79 Kobo, and Champion Breweries rose by 5.39 per cent to N17.60.
Yesterday, 1.4 billion shares worth N46.2 billion were transacted in 70,222 deals compared with the 1.1 billion shares valued at N53.4 billion traded in 72,218 deals a day earlier, implying a rise in the trading volume by 27.27 per cent, and a decline in the trading value and number of deals by 13.48 per cent and 2.76 per cent, respectively.
Fortis Global Insurance ended the session as the busiest stock after trading 193.7 million units for N152.7 million, Zenith Bank transacted 120.7 million units worth N11.1 billion, Japaul exchanged 114.8 million units valued at N407.0 million, Ellah Lakes sold 98.4 million units worth N999.2 million, and Access Holdings traded 63.1 million units valued at N1.7 billion.
By Adedapo Adesanya
A 74 Kobo or 0.05 per cent decline was recorded by the Naira against the United States Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Wednesday, February 25, trading at N1,356.11/$1 compared with the N1,355.37/$1 it was traded on Tuesday.
The Nigerian currency also further depreciated against the Pound Sterling during the session in the official market by N6.70 to settle at N1,834.96/£1 versus the preceding day’s rate of N1,828.26/£1, and against the Euro, it tumbled by N4.94 to quote at N1,598.59/€1 compared with the previous session’s N1,596.36/€1.
In the same vein, the Nigerian Naira lost N6 against the Dollar at the GTBank forex desk to close at N1,367/$1, in contrast to N1,361/$1 it was exchanged a day earlier, and in the parallel market, it traded flat at N1,365/$1.
The continuation of the decline of the local currency has been tied to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) buying US Dollars from the market to slow the rapid rise of the Naira.
The apex bank bought about $189.80 million to reduce excess Dollar supply and control how fast the Naira was gaining value.
The monetary policy committee (MPC) of the CBN on Tuesday reduced interest rates by 50 basis points to 26.50 per cent from 27 per cent after inflation eased in January 2026, a move analysts say is the best not to unsettle FX market, especially the Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPI_ inflows which have anchored much of the recent supply and weakened the recently restored monetary credibility.
“The 50bps move therefore provides a clear directional signal while still keeping overall monetary conditions restrictive, indicating the start of a shallow, data-dependent easing cycle rather than a radical shift to accommodative policy,” said Mr Kayode Akindele, CEO, Coronation Capital and Head, Coronation Research in an email.
As for the cryptocurrency market, benchmarked tokens rebounded in double digits, driven by bearish positioning and thin liquidity rather than by clear fundamental catalysts, with Cardano (ADA) growing by 16.2 per cent to $0.3015, and Solana (SOL) appreciating by 12.3 per cent to $88.66.
Further, Ethereum (ETH) surged 11.9 per cent to $2,076.66, Litecoin (LTC) expanded by 11.5 per cent to $57.15, Dogecoin (DOGE) rose by 11.5 per cent to $0.1025, Binance Coin (BNB) advanced by 7.6 per cent to $629.76, Ripple (XRP) jumped 7.2 per cent to $1.45, and Bitcoin (BTC) added 6.4 per cent to sell for $68,136.72, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 apiece.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil prices settled largely unchanged on Wednesday amid a build in American crude stockpile and the threat to oil supply from potential military conflict between the US and Iran.
Brent futures chalked up 8 cents to trade at $70.85 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures settled lost 21 cents to close at $65.42 per barrel.
Crude oil inventories in the US increased by 16 million barrels during the week ending February 20, according to new data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released on Wednesday.
The decrease brings commercial stockpiles to 435.8 million barrels according to government data, which is still 3% below the five-year average for this time of year.
The EIA’s data release follows figures by the American Petroleum Institute (API) that were released a day earlier, which reported that crude oil inventories rose by a massive 11.4 million barrels in the period.
The market continued to weigh the possibility extended conflict could disrupt supplies from Iran, the third-biggest crude producer in the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other countries in the Middle East.
US President Donald Trump verbally attacked Iran, saying he would not allow a country he described as the world’s biggest sponsor of terrorism to have a nuclear weapon.
This comes as US envoys are due to meet an Iranian delegation for a third round of talks on Thursday in Geneva, Switzerland.
Reuters reported that OPEC+ is considering raising its oil output by 137,000 barrels per day for April to end a three-month pause in production increases. This is as the group prepares for peak summer demand and tensions between the US and Iran boost prices.
Eight OPEC+ producers – Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman – meet on March 1.
An increase of 137,000 barrels per day for April would be the same as those agreed for December, November and October last year.
In a separate development, Saudi Arabia has activated a plan for a short-term oil output and export surge in case a US strike on Iran disrupts flows from the Middle East, said two sources familiar with the Saudi plan.
Tariff uncertainty also further worried investors after President Trump’s temporary global tariff of 10 per cent took effect on Tuesday after the Supreme Court’s sweeping ruling last week. He later said the levy would be 15 per cent, but it was unclear when and if it would apply.
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