Economy
GCR Affirms Forte Oil Issuer, Bond Ratings At A-(NG)
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
The national scale issuer ratings assigned to Forte Oil Plc of A-(NG) and A1-(NG) in the long term and short term respectively have been affirmed by Global Credit Ratings (GCR) with the outlook accorded as Stable.
Concurrently, the Series 1 Fixed Bond rating has been affirmed at A-(NG) and placed on Stable Outlook. The ratings expire in June 2018.
A statement issued by GCR explained that the ratings were accorded to Forte Oil Plc after taking cognisance of the firm’s top-tier position in the Nigerian downstream petroleum industry, underpinned by a visible brand, significant assets across the value chain, strong relationships with suppliers, experienced management team, as well as an extensive distribution and retail network.
The downstream petroleum industry is heavily reliant on imports, due to low levels of domestic refining. As a result, challenges were heightened by hard currency shortages (which resulted in product scarcity), adverse exchange rate movements and delayed subsidy payments in 2016.
In addition, the harsh economic environment and reduced consumer spending power led to a temporary decline in demand for petrol (following a 67% increase in the pump price in May 2016).
In a bid to reduce exposure to foreign exchange fluctuations, Forte Oil significantly scaled back its refined petroleum product import volumes. As such, FY16 and 1Q FY17 revenue and earnings were significantly below initial forecasts.
Forte Oil’s revenue increased by 19% to N148.6bn in FY16, underpinned by a general price increase across business segments and higher traded lubricant sales volumes. However, the partial cost pass through saw the gross margin decline to 13.9% in FY16, before rebounding to 17.6% in 1Q FY17. Effective cost management and focus on high margin, non-regulated products, saw operating margin increased from 5% in FY15 to 6.3% in FY16 edging up to 9.5% in the 3-month period to March 2017.
The net finance charge spiked to N4.2bn in FY16 (FY15: N1.6bn), due to the impact of Naira devaluation on import finance facilities and higher lending rates. Accordingly, net interest cover reduced to 2.2x in FY16 (FY15: 3.6x), and further to 2x in 1Q FY17.
The N9bn Series 1 Bond Issue and funding raised for the Geregu Power plant overhaul pushed debt up to N49.4bn at FY16. Coupled with a reduction in distributable reserves (following a dividend payment), this drove net gearing up to 75% at FY16 and 80% at 1Q FY17.
Positively, net debt to EBITDA improved to a respective 263% and 209% at FY16 and 1Q FY17, albeit behind target.
Forte Oil plans to raise additional capital of N20bn equity during 3Q 2017. Following the equity raise, management anticipates net gearing to reduce below 35% at FYE17 and FYE18 respectively, while net debt to EBITDA is projected to register around 100% for both years.
Despite the downstream petroleum industry challenges, prospects are enhanced by a strong baseline of demand, on the back of the country’s large urban population and heavy vehicular traffic.
In addition, the completion of Dangote Group’s 650,000bbl/d refinery (set for 2019), is expected to materially reduce the dependence on imports, with the Ministry of Petroleum projecting the cessation of fuel importation once the plant is at full capacity.
Forte Oil plans to expand its retail network and diversify its non-fuel revenue streams with strong local and international brands. In this regard, the power generation business had increased capacity utilisation to 100% by 1H FY17 (1H FY16: 35%) and should contribute materially to earnings in the medium term.
The Group also anticipates a rebound in the upstream oil and gas services business on the back of broader economic recovery in the medium term, and thus plans to expand service offerings.
Sustainable margin enhancement, on the back of the materialisation of current business plans could result in positive rating action if it translates to stronger credit protection metrics in the medium term.
Conversely, adverse regulatory/policy changes, or other external factors could adversely affect earnings and result in liquidity strain and/or increased gearing metrics, placing downward pressure on the ratings. In addition, sustained increase in debt levels and gearing metrics would lead to negative rating action
As the Series 1 Fixed Rate Bond is a senior unsecured obligation of the Issuer, the Bonds will bear the same rating as the Issuer, and any change in the rating assigned to the Issuer will directly affect the Bond rating.
By Dipo Olowookere
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited was further pulled back by 0.50 per cent on Tuesday as a result of profit-taking in some heavyweight stocks.
Like the preceding session, the key sectors of Customs Street were depressed yesterday, with the banking index down by 2.82 per cent. The consumer goods declined by 0.52 per cent, the insurance space lost 0.10 per cent, and the energy counter shrank by 0.03 per cent, while the industrial goods segment was flat.
Consequently, the All-Share Index (ASI) eased by 1,437.54 points to 241,984.80 points from 243,422.34 points, and the market capitalisation contracted by N922 billion to N155.204 trillion from N156.126 trillion.
The worst-performing stock was International Energy Insurance, which gave up 10.00 per cent to close at N5.76. Vitafoam dipped by 10.00 per cent to N189.00, Austin Laz crashed by 9.93 per cent to N3.90, SUNU Assurances depleted by 9.82 per cent to N3.58, and Sovereign Trust Insurance lost 8.37 per cent to finish at N2.30.
On the flip side, Conoil gained 9.79 per cent to trade at N213.00, Prestige Assurance also expanded by 9.79 per cent to N1.57, Neimeth jumped 9.74 per cent to N8.45, eTranzact chalked up 9.40 per cent to close at N16.30, and Cornerstone Insurance improved by 9.09 per cent to N5.40.
The bourse witnessed heavy sell-offs in some equities, with Sterling Holdings recording the sale of 100.9 million units worth N782.8 million to lead the activity log. UAC Nigeria transacted 49.4 million units valued at N9.1 billion, Access Holdings sold 28.8 million units for N699.3 million, Zenith Bank exchanged 29.4 million units worth N3.0 billion, and GTCO traded 20.2 million units valued at N2.7 billion.
At the close of transactions, market participants bought and sold 535.5 million shares worth N36.8 billion in 55,123 deals compared with 569.1 million shares valued at N31.4 billion traded in 77,652 deals on Monday. This implied that the trading value went up by 17.20 per cent, while the trading volume and the number of deals went down by 5.90 per cent and 29.01 per cent, respectively.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange was further down by 0.48 per cent on Monday, June 16, as a result of the losses printed by three bellwethers, led by MRS Oil Plc, which fell by N15.80 to N142.20 per unit from N158.00 per unit.
Further, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc dipped by N2.94 to close at N180.14 per share versus the previous day’s N183.08 per share, and Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc crumbled by 38 Kobo to N80.24 per share from N80.62 per share.
Consequently, the market capitalisation of the trading platform moderated by N12.55 billion to N2.605 trillion from N2.605 trillion, while the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) weakened by 20.98 points to 4,333.35 points from 4,354.33 points.
During the trading day, the value of transactions surged by 16.5 per cent to N45.6 million from the preceding session’s N39.2 million, and the number of deals soared by 34.8 per cent to 31 deals from 23 deals, while the volume of securities declined by 30.6 per cent to 688,290 units from 992,164 units.
At the close of trades, Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc remained the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis with a turnover of 3.4 billion units valued at N8.4 billion. The second spot was occupied by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc, with 2.3 billion sold for N6.5 billion, and the third position was taken by CSCS Plc, with 66.9 million units exchanged for N4.6 billion.
GNI Plc also ended the session as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, followed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units traded for N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units transacted for N415.7 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira suffered a 0.55 per cent or 91 Kobo loss against the US Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Tuesday, June 16, closing at N1,357.18 /$1 compared with the previous day’s N1,356.27/$1.
It also weakened against the Pound Sterling at the official market during the session by N11.53 to trade at N1,820.39/£1 versus Monday’s rate of N1,808.86/£1, but appreciated against the Euro by N2.06 to quote at N1,573.79/€1 versus the preceding session’s N1,575.85/€1.
In the black market, the Nigerian currency crashed against the Dollar yesterday by N5 to sell for N1,385/$1, in contrast to the N1,380/$1 it was traded a day earlier, and at the GTBank FX desk, it traded flat at N1,373/$1.
Nigeria’s gross external reserves surged to $50.505 billion, the highest international Dollar balance since January 2009, affirming expectations that the local currency will remain along a stable band. The FX reserves position was buoyed by inflows from oil sales.
In its Article IV consultation report on Nigeria, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that the Naira remains significantly undervalued despite recent gains from FX reforms. It noted that its Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) assessment showed the local currency was still trading below levels supported by the country’s economic fundamentals, saying the Naira should have traded around N1,142.04/$1 using the end-of-2025 exchange rate benchmark, or N1,130.88/$1 when calculated using the average exchange rate for the year.
As for the cryptocurrency market, prices showed renewed risk appetite as total 24-hour trading volume jumped 51 per cent to $207 billion, open interest rose 2.4 per cent to $113.41 billion, and liquidations surged 64 per cent to $561 million, with shorts accounting for the bulk of the forced exits, according to Coindesk data.
Cardano (ADA) slid 2.7 per cent to $0.1731, Binance Coin (BNB) slumped 1.6 per cent to $605.80, Ripple (XRP) declined by 1.5 per cent to $1.22, Bitcoin (BTC) fell 0.8 per cent to $65,739.70, Dogecoin (DOGE) also tumbled by 0.6 per cent to $0.0873, and TRON (TRX) depreciated by 0.6 per cent to $0.3166.
However, Ethereum (ETH) grew by 0.5 per cent to $1,795.40, and Solana (SOL) rose by 0.2 per cent to $73.81, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 apiece.
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