Economy
GCR Affirms Forte Oil Issuer, Bond Ratings At A-(NG)

By Modupe Gbadeyanka
The national scale issuer ratings assigned to Forte Oil Plc of A-(NG) and A1-(NG) in the long term and short term respectively have been affirmed by Global Credit Ratings (GCR) with the outlook accorded as Stable.
Concurrently, the Series 1 Fixed Bond rating has been affirmed at A-(NG) and placed on Stable Outlook. The ratings expire in June 2018.
A statement issued by GCR explained that the ratings were accorded to Forte Oil Plc after taking cognisance of the firm’s top-tier position in the Nigerian downstream petroleum industry, underpinned by a visible brand, significant assets across the value chain, strong relationships with suppliers, experienced management team, as well as an extensive distribution and retail network.
The downstream petroleum industry is heavily reliant on imports, due to low levels of domestic refining. As a result, challenges were heightened by hard currency shortages (which resulted in product scarcity), adverse exchange rate movements and delayed subsidy payments in 2016.
In addition, the harsh economic environment and reduced consumer spending power led to a temporary decline in demand for petrol (following a 67% increase in the pump price in May 2016).
In a bid to reduce exposure to foreign exchange fluctuations, Forte Oil significantly scaled back its refined petroleum product import volumes. As such, FY16 and 1Q FY17 revenue and earnings were significantly below initial forecasts.
Forte Oil’s revenue increased by 19% to N148.6bn in FY16, underpinned by a general price increase across business segments and higher traded lubricant sales volumes. However, the partial cost pass through saw the gross margin decline to 13.9% in FY16, before rebounding to 17.6% in 1Q FY17. Effective cost management and focus on high margin, non-regulated products, saw operating margin increased from 5% in FY15 to 6.3% in FY16 edging up to 9.5% in the 3-month period to March 2017.
The net finance charge spiked to N4.2bn in FY16 (FY15: N1.6bn), due to the impact of Naira devaluation on import finance facilities and higher lending rates. Accordingly, net interest cover reduced to 2.2x in FY16 (FY15: 3.6x), and further to 2x in 1Q FY17.
The N9bn Series 1 Bond Issue and funding raised for the Geregu Power plant overhaul pushed debt up to N49.4bn at FY16. Coupled with a reduction in distributable reserves (following a dividend payment), this drove net gearing up to 75% at FY16 and 80% at 1Q FY17.
Positively, net debt to EBITDA improved to a respective 263% and 209% at FY16 and 1Q FY17, albeit behind target.
Forte Oil plans to raise additional capital of N20bn equity during 3Q 2017. Following the equity raise, management anticipates net gearing to reduce below 35% at FYE17 and FYE18 respectively, while net debt to EBITDA is projected to register around 100% for both years.
Despite the downstream petroleum industry challenges, prospects are enhanced by a strong baseline of demand, on the back of the country’s large urban population and heavy vehicular traffic.
In addition, the completion of Dangote Group’s 650,000bbl/d refinery (set for 2019), is expected to materially reduce the dependence on imports, with the Ministry of Petroleum projecting the cessation of fuel importation once the plant is at full capacity.
Forte Oil plans to expand its retail network and diversify its non-fuel revenue streams with strong local and international brands. In this regard, the power generation business had increased capacity utilisation to 100% by 1H FY17 (1H FY16: 35%) and should contribute materially to earnings in the medium term.
The Group also anticipates a rebound in the upstream oil and gas services business on the back of broader economic recovery in the medium term, and thus plans to expand service offerings.
Sustainable margin enhancement, on the back of the materialisation of current business plans could result in positive rating action if it translates to stronger credit protection metrics in the medium term.
Conversely, adverse regulatory/policy changes, or other external factors could adversely affect earnings and result in liquidity strain and/or increased gearing metrics, placing downward pressure on the ratings. In addition, sustained increase in debt levels and gearing metrics would lead to negative rating action
As the Series 1 Fixed Rate Bond is a senior unsecured obligation of the Issuer, the Bonds will bear the same rating as the Issuer, and any change in the rating assigned to the Issuer will directly affect the Bond rating.
Economy
Tinubu Presents N58.47trn Budget for 2026 to National Assembly
By Adedapo Adesanya
President Bola Tinubu on Friday presented a budget proposal of N58.47 trillion for the 2026 fiscal year titled Budget of Consolidation, Renewed Resilience and Shared Prosperity to a joint session of the National Assembly, with capital recurrent (non‑debt) expenditure standing at 15.25 trillion, and the capital expenditure at N26.08 trillion, while the crude oil benchmark was pegged at $64.85 per barrel.
Business Post reports that the Brent crude grade currently trades around $60 per barrel. It is also expected to trade at that level or lower next year over worries about oil glut.
At the budget presentation today, Mr Tinubu said the expected total revenue for the year is N34.33 trillion, and the proposal is anchored on a crude oil production of 1.84 million barrels per day, and an exchange rate of N1,400 to the US Dollar.
In terms of sectoral allocation, defence and security took the lion’s share with N5.41 trillion, followed by infrastructure at N3.56 trillion, education received N3.52 trillion, while health received N2.48 trillion.
Addressing the lawmakers, the President described the budget proposal as not “just accounting lines”.
“They are a statement of national priorities,” the president told the gathering. “We remain firmly committed to fiscal sustainability, debt transparency, and value‑for‑money spending.”
The presentation came at a time of heightened insecurity in parts of the country, with mass abductions and other crimes making headlines.
Outlining his government’s plan to address the challenge, President Tinubu reminded the gathering that security “remains the foundation of development”.
He said some of the measures in place to tame insecurity include the modernisation of the Armed Forces, intelligence‑driven policing and joint operations, border security, and technology‑enabled surveillance and community‑based peacebuilding and conflict prevention.
“We will invest in security with clear accountability for outcomes—because security spending must deliver security results,” the president said.
“To secure our country, our priority will remain on increasing the fighting capability of our armed forces and other security agencies by boosting personnel and procuring cutting-edge platforms and other hardware,” he added.
Economy
PenCom Extends Deadline for Pension Recapitalisation to June 2027
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The deadline for the recapitalisation of the Nigerian pension industry has been extended by six months to June 2027 from December 2026.
This extension was approved by the National Pension Commission (PenCom), the agency, which regulates the sector in the country.
Addressing newsmen on Thursday in Lagos, the Director-General of PenCom, Ms Omolola Oloworaran, explained that the shift in deadline was to give operators more time to boost the capital base, dismissing speculations that the exercise had been suspended.
“The recapitalisation has not been suspended. We have communicated the requirements to the Pension Fund Administrators (PFAs), and we expect every operator to be compliant by June 2027. Anyone who is not compliant by then will lose their licence,” Ms Oloworaran told journalists.
She added that, “From a regulatory standpoint, our major challenge is ensuring compliance. We are working with ICPC, labour and the TUC to ensure employers remit pension contributions for their employees.”
The DG noted that engagements with industry operators indicated broad acceptance of the policy, with many PFAs already taking steps to raise additional capital or explore mergers and acquisitions.
“You may see some mergers and acquisitions in the industry, but what is clear is that the recapitalisation exercise is on track and the industry agrees with us,” she stated.
PenCom wants the PFAs to increase their capital base and has created three categories, with the first consists operators with Assets Under Management of N500 billion and above. They are expected to have a minimum capital of N20 billion and one per cent of AUM above N500 billion.
The second category has PFAs with AUM below N500 billion, which must have at least N20 billion as capital base.
The last segment comprises special-purpose PFAs such as NPF Pensions Limited, whose minimum capital was pegged at N30 billion, and the Nigerian University Pension Management Company Limited, whose minimum capital was fixed at N20 billion.
Economy
Three Securities Sink NASD Exchange by 0.68%
By Adedapo Adesanya
Three securities weakened the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 0.68 per cent on Thursday, December 18.
According to data, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc led the losers’ group after it slipped by N2.87 to N36.78 per share from N39.65 per share, Golden Capital Plc depreciated by 77 Kobo to end at N6.98 per unit versus the previous day’s N7.77 per unit, and FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc dropped 19 Kobo to sell at N60.00 per share versus Wednesday’s closing price of N60.19 per share.
At the close of business, the market capitalisation lost N16.81 billion to finish at N2.147 billion compared with the preceding session’s N2.164 trillion, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) declined by 24.76 points to 3,589.88 points from 3,614.64 points.
Yesterday, the volume of securities bought and sold increased by 49.3 per cent to 30.5 million units from 20.4 million units, the value of securities surged by 211.8 per cent to N225.1 million from N72.2 million, and the number of deals jumped by 33.3 per cent to 28 deals from 21 deals.
Infrastructure Credit Guarantee Company (InfraCredit) Plc remained the most traded stock by value with a year-to-date sale of 5.8 billion units valued at N16.4 billion, followed by Okitipupa Plc with 178.9 million units transacted for N9.5 billion, and MRS Oil Plc with 36.1 million units worth N4.9 billion.
Similarly, InfraCredit Plc ended as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 5.8 billion units traded for N16.4 billion, trailed by Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc with 1.2 billion units sold for N420.7 million, and Impresit Bakolori Plc with 536.9 million units exchanged for N524.9 million.
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