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Seplat Plc: Upbeat Outlook in 2018 But Risk Persists

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By Dipo Olowookere

Analysts at ARM Research have disclosed that beyond 2017, they expect a more improved performance by Seplat Petroleum Development Company Plc (Seplat).

In its report released yesterday titled ‘Seplat Plc – In the clear,’ ARM research noted that starting off in 2018, it expects the company’s exports to rise largely reflecting the planned completion of the Escravos pipeline which offer a third export route for the company.

ARM Research said it revised its estimates for Seplat and increased its fair value estimate (FVE) to N518.74/share (previously N346/share) after the lifting of the force majeure on the TransForcados Pipeline (TFP) alongside upgrade at the alternative route (Warri refinery).

In the report obtained by Business Post, ARM Research said, “We see substantial upside in earnings in 2018F where we expect weighty ramp-up in exports, benign cost, and earnings derisk (opening 2 additional evacuation routes) to drive a stellar performance. On basis of valuation, Seplat trades on 2018F P/E of 8.6x which is at 30% discount to its EMEA peers.”

Earlier this month, Seplat’s management reported it has received notification from the operator of TPS (SPDC) on the lifting of the force majeure on the pipeline at the end of May 2017.

The company further stated that it has successfully reinstated production levels at the OMLs 4, 38 and 41 to net working interest production levels of 56kboep/d. Also, Seplat informed that upgrade at the Warri refinery will be completed by Q2 17, the report said.

“Our cautious view with regards to project completion and ramp up in export guides our 180 days downtime forecast for 2017E (previously 280 days).

“Consequently, we revise working interest production for 2017E to 39.27bopd (+52% YoY) to drive revenue 48% higher YoY to $376.6million – Oil revenue (+50% YoY to $222.7million) and Gas revenue (+46% YoY to $153.8million).

“We recall from our FY 16 earnings update ‘Striking FY 16 loss: is Seplat off the hook?’ where we noted that Seplat will need its working interest production to cross 32kbopd before the company can post a profit.

“Thus, given the earlier than expected re-opening of TFP to drive higher production, our estimate implies PAT of $27.3million for FY 17E (2016: loss after tax of $166million),” the report said.

Management has indicated it was working with the FG to complete the Escravos pipeline where it expects to export circa. 160kbpd.

Though Seplat expects this to be operational in H2 17, the report said it is less sanguine about the target completion time of the Escravos pipeline owing to government’s delayed completion on similar projects, and therefore see 2018 as a more realistic date for the project.

The combination of an upgrade at the Warri refinery as well as fully operational Trans-Forcados and Escravos pipelines drive its forecast of a 90-day downtime in 2018 with working interest production forecast of 44.8bopd (+14% YoY) and over four-fold increase in PAT to $84.1million, the research report stated.

“Farther out (2019-2022F), Seplat’s intention to make the Escravos pipeline its primary route guides to lower reconciliation cost.

“Consequently, we forecast an average working interest production of 50kbopd and mean PAT of $95million over our forecast period. Another catalyst to earnings is Seplat’s operated $1.3bilion ANOH gas and condensate project which a final investment decision (FID) for the upstream and midstream elements is expected in H2 2017 and should guide a revision to forecast. Irrespective, downside risk to earnings persist.

“Ongoing national security concerns with recurrent threat by new militant groups in the Niger delta region pose risk to production and export volumes from pipeline attacks.

“To add, oil prices below our $40/bbl. Estimate would result in a downward revision to our estimate.

“The stock currently trades at an FY 17E and FY 18F P/E of 22x and 8.6x compared to 15.4x and 12x for its EMEA peers. We forecast a sturdy 5-year earnings CAGR of 55%. Cumulative impact of the adjustments results in an attractive valuation with NAV per share of its oil and gas assets at $2.19 and $0.43 respectively having applied 35% discount to asset values to reflect our risk to future earnings.

“The foregoing, combined with our exchange rate forecast of N360/$ for 2017, drives our FVE higher to N518.74 (previously N346).

“Our FVE is at a 13% premium to the last closing price of N460. We have an OVERWEIGHT rating on the stock,” ARM Research stated in the report.

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Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via [email protected]

Economy

Investors Reaffirm Strong Confidence in Legend Internet With N10bn CP Oversubscription

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legend internet shares

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The series 1 of the N10 billion Commercial Paper (CP) issuance of Legend Internet Plc recorded an oversubscription of 19.7 per cent from investors.

This reaffirmed the strong confidence in the company’s financial stability and growth trajectory.

The exercise is a critical component of Legend Internet’s N10 billion multi-layered financing programme, designed to support its medium- to long-term growth.

Proceeds are expected to be used for broadband infrastructure expansion to deepen nationwide penetration, optimise the organisation’s working capital for operational efficiency, strategic acquisitions that will strengthen its market position and accelerate service innovation.

The telecommunications firm sees the acceptance of the debt instruments as a response to its performance, credit profile, and disciplined operational structure, noting it also reflects continued trust in its ability to execute on its strategic vision for nationwide digital infrastructure expansion.

“The strong investor participation in our Series 1 Commercial Paper issuance is both encouraging and validating. It demonstrates the market’s belief in our financial integrity, operational strength, and long-term vision for digital infrastructure growth. This support fuels our commitment to building a more connected, competitive, and digitally enabled Nigeria.

“This milestone is not just a financing event; it is a strategic enabler of our expansion plans, working capital needs, and future acquisitions. We extend our sincere appreciation to our investors, advisers, and market partners whose confidence continues to propel Legend Internet forward,” the chief executive of Legend Internet, Ms Aisha Abdulaziz, commented.

Also commenting, the Chief Financial Officer of Legend Internet, Mr Chris Pitan, said, “This achievement is powered by our disciplined financing framework, which enables us to scale sustainably, innovate continuously, and consistently meet the evolving needs of our customers.

“We remain committed to building a future where every connection drives opportunity, productivity, and growth for communities across Nigeria.”

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Economy

Tinubu to Present 2026 Budget to National Assembly Friday

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N6.2trn Supplementary Budget

By Adedapo Adesanya

President Bola Tinubu will, on Friday, present the 2026 Appropriation Bill to a joint session of the National Assembly.

The presentation, scheduled for 2:00 pm, was conveyed in a notice issued on Wednesday by the Office of the Clerk to the National Assembly.

According to the notice, all accredited persons are required to be at their duty posts by 11:00 am on the day of the presentation, as access into the National Assembly Complex will be restricted thereafter for security reasons.

The notice, signed by the Secretary, Human Resources and Staff Development, Mr Essien Eyo Essien, on behalf of the Clerk to the National Assembly, urged all concerned to ensure strict compliance with the arrangements ahead of the President’s budget presentation.

The 2026 budget is projected at N54.4 trillion, according to the approved 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP).

Meanwhile, President Tinubu has asked the National Assembly to repeal and re-enact the 2024 appropriation act in separate letters to the Senate and the House of Representatives on Wednesday and read during plenary by the presiding officers.

The bill was titled Appropriation (Repeal and Re-enactment Bill 2) 2024, involving a total proposed expenditure of N43.56 trillion.

In a letter dated December 16, 2025, the President said the bill seeks authorisation for the issuance of a total sum of N43.56 trillion from the Consolidated Revenue Fund of the Federation for the year ending December 31, 2025.

A breakdown of the proposed expenditure shows N1.74 trillion for statutory transfers, N8.27 trillion for debt service, N11.27 trillion for recurrent (non-debt) expenditure, and N22.28 trillion for capital expenditure and development fund contributions.

The President said the proposed legislation is aimed at ending the practice of running multiple budgets concurrently, while ensuring reasonable – indeed unprecedentedly high – capital performance rates on the 2024 and 2025 capital budgets.

He explained that the bill also provides a transparent and constitutionally grounded framework for consolidating and appropriating critical and time-sensitive expenditures undertaken in response to emergency situations, national security concerns, and other urgent needs.

President Tinubu added that the bill strengthens fiscal discipline and accountability by mandating that funds be released strictly for purposes approved by the National Assembly, restricting virement without prior legislative approval, and setting conditions for corrigenda in cases of genuine implementation errors.

The bill, which passed first and second reading in the House of Representatives, has been referred to the Committee on Appropriations for further legislative action.

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Economy

Nigeria Bans Wood, Charcoal Exports, Revokes Licenses

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The federal government has imposed an immediate nationwide ban on the export of wood and allied products, revoking all previously issued licenses and permits to exporters.

The announcement was made on Wednesday by the Minister of Environment, Mr Balarabe Lawal, during the 18th meeting of the National Council on Environment in Katsina State.

Mr Lawal said the directive, outlined in the Presidential Executive Order titled Presidential Executive Order on the Prohibition of Exportation of Wood and Allied Products, 2025, became necessary to curb illegal logging and deforestation across the country.

“Nigeria’s forests are central to environmental sustainability, providing clean air and water, supporting livelihoods, conserving biodiversity, and mitigating the effects of climate change,” the Minister said, warning that the continued exportation of wood threatens these benefits and the long-term health of the environment.

The order, published in the Extraordinary Federal Republic of Nigeria Official Gazette No. 180, Vol. 112 of 16 October 2025, relies on Sections 17(2) and 20 of the 1999 Constitution (as amended), which empower the state to protect the environment, forests, and wildlife and prevent the exploitation of natural resources for private gain.

Under the new policy, security agencies and relevant ministries are expected to enforce a total clampdown on illegal logging activities nationwide.

On his part, the Katsina State Deputy Governor, Mr Faruk Lawal Jobe highlighted the state’s history of pioneering socio-economic policies that have influenced national policy. He emphasized the importance of collaboration in addressing environmental challenges across the country.

“Environmental sustainability is critical to achieving growth and improving the quality of life of our people,” he said. “Our administration has prioritised initiatives aimed at combating desertification and promoting afforestation.”

The ban reflects the government’s commitment to safeguarding Nigeria’s shrinking forest cover and addressing climate change, while ensuring sustainable use of natural resources for future generations.

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